{"source":"Delta Sunday Wire","url":"https://deltasunday.com/wire","generated_at":"2026-11-03T03:45:46.831Z","items":[{"id":"money:2-9","slug":"where-the-money-is-2026-week-9","date":"2026-11-03T03:42:41.185Z","kind":"money","teams":["BAL","JAX","SF","LV","NE","GB"],"title":"Most money: Jaguars at Ravens, $211k on the exchanges","body":"Jaguars at Ravens $211k, Raiders at 49ers $59k, Packers at Patriots $35k traded on Kalshi and Polymarket. The exchanges and the books agree within four points everywhere.","more":["Volume is crowd interest, not accuracy; the question the season is testing is whether heavily traded games are priced better. When the exchanges and the sportsbooks disagree by four or more points, one side is wrong, and the site scores both on the same games so the record decides."],"facts":[{"label":"JAX at BAL traded","value":"$211k"},{"label":"LV at SF traded","value":"$59k"},{"label":"GB at NE traded","value":"$35k"},{"label":"DAL at IND traded","value":"$30k"},{"label":"NYJ at KC traded","value":"$27k"}],"href":"/markets","url":"https://deltasunday.com/wire/where-the-money-is-2026-week-9","about":"https://deltasunday.com/markets"},{"id":"weather:2-9","slug":"weather-report-2026-week-9","date":"2026-11-03T03:41:12.607+00:00","kind":"weather","teams":["MIA","DET","SEA","ARI"],"title":"Weather report for Week 9: 2 games to watch, 1 in wind, 1 in heat","body":"Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth.","more":["Weather is one of the few things the betting market prices loosely, because it is only known a few days out and most money is down before that. Over 4,500 outdoor games with weather on record, wind was the clearest effect: it takes away the passing edge a favorite usually has, and games score about a point and a half under the total.","The forecast comes from Open-Meteo for each stadium at the kickoff hour and refreshes every six hours, so this can change before kickoff. Each game page shows the current reading."],"facts":[{"label":"DET at MIA","value":"11 mph wind, 87°F; Elo MIA 41%"},{"label":"ARI at SEA","value":"15 mph wind, 60°F; Elo SEA 87%"}],"href":"/predictions","url":"https://deltasunday.com/wire/weather-report-2026-week-9","about":"https://deltasunday.com/predictions"},{"id":"rest:2-9","slug":"rest-and-byes-2026-week-9","date":"2026-11-03T03:41:12.607+00:00","kind":"rest","teams":["BAL","JAX","NO","CLE","PHI","NYG","CAR","DEN","LAC","HOU","SF","LV","NE","GB"],"title":"Rest this week: 6 teams off a bye, 1 on short rest","body":"Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye.","more":["Elo gives a team off a bye 25 rating points, about 2.5 points of win probability; over 27 seasons it is about right (home teams off a bye won 57.7% against 60.3% forecast, away teams 46.3% against 44.7%). Short rest is the Thursday effect: over 267 Thursday games since 1999, home teams won 56% against a 56% forecast, so nothing to adjust for."],"facts":[{"label":"JAX at BAL","value":"Ravens on 4 days' rest"},{"label":"JAX at BAL","value":"Jaguars on 4 days' rest"},{"label":"CLE at NO","value":"Saints off a bye"},{"label":"NYG at PHI","value":"Giants off a bye"},{"label":"DEN at CAR","value":"Panthers off a bye"},{"label":"HOU at LAC","value":"Texans off a bye"},{"label":"LV at SF","value":"49ers off a bye"},{"label":"GB at NE","value":"Packers off a bye"}],"href":"/predictions","url":"https://deltasunday.com/wire/rest-and-byes-2026-week-9","about":"https://deltasunday.com/predictions"},{"id":"spot:2-9","slug":"game-that-matters-most-2026-week-9","date":"2026-11-03T03:41:12.607+00:00","kind":"spotlight","game_id":"401873050","teams":["CHI","TB"],"title":"The game that matters most this week: Buccaneers at Bears","body":"Importance 51 of 100, the biggest swing in the league's playoff picture on the schedule. Elo has CHI at 68%.","more":["Importance is measured by simulation: play the season out three thousand times with the home team winning, three thousand with the away team winning, and add up how far every team's playoff odds move between the two. A game between two contenders in the same division scores highest; a game between two eliminated teams scores near zero."],"facts":[{"label":"Importance","value":"51 / 100"},{"label":"Elo","value":"CHI 68%"},{"label":"Kickoff","value":"Sunday 8:20 PM ET"}],"href":"/games/2026-week-9-tb-at-chi","url":"https://deltasunday.com/wire/game-that-matters-most-2026-week-9","about":"https://deltasunday.com/games/2026-week-9-tb-at-chi"},{"id":"injuries:2-9","slug":"injury-report-2026-week-9","date":"2026-11-03T02:10:21.228+00:00","kind":"injuries","teams":["BAL","JAX"],"title":"Injury report for Week 9: 6 out, 0 doubtful, 16 questionable across 1 games","body":"Most affected: Jaguars at Ravens (6 out or doubtful). Out at key spots: Jaylinn Hawkins (BAL, S), Lamar Jackson (BAL, QB), Eric Murray (JAX, S), Antonio Johnson (JAX, S). Every game page carries the full list for both teams.","more":["Statuses are ESPN's, refreshed every three hours. Out and doubtful players are treated as unavailable; questionable players usually play (league-wide, roughly two in three). Only the quarterback feeds the model directly, through the Elo adjustment; everything else is priced by the market, which is one reason The System weights the market three to one.","A backup at a skill position moves a spread by a point or less; a starting quarterback moves it by three to seven. Compare a game's injury list with its line movement to see what the market has already absorbed."],"facts":[{"label":"JAX at BAL","value":"6 out/doubtful, 16 questionable"}],"href":"/predictions","url":"https://deltasunday.com/wire/injury-report-2026-week-9","about":"https://deltasunday.com/predictions"},{"id":"qb:ATL:00-0039917","date":"2026-11-03T02:10:20.977+00:00","kind":"qb","game_id":"401873038","teams":["ATL"],"title":"Michael Penix Jr. expected to start for the Falcons","body":"Cooper Rush started last time out. Elo's quarterback adjustment for the Falcons is now +28 points on Bengals at Falcons.","more":["Expected starters come from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied: anyone listed out, doubtful or on injured reserve is skipped, and the next name up is the starter. The site checks every three hours. FiveThirtyEight did this step by hand each week; here it is a rule.","The quarterback adjustment moves a team's Elo by 3.3 points per point of the quarterback's rolling value against the team's. A backup with no record starts a fixed distance below the starter; a rookie starts at his draft-slot prior. The market usually knows first, so The System, which weights the market three to one, has most of this already."],"facts":[{"label":"Expected starter","value":"Michael Penix Jr."},{"label":"Last starter","value":"Cooper Rush"},{"label":"Elo QB adjustment","value":"+28"},{"label":"Kickoff","value":"Sunday 9:30 AM"}],"href":"/games/2026-week-9-cin-at-atl","slug":"michael-penix-jr-expected-to-start-for-the-falcons-00039917","url":"https://deltasunday.com/wire/michael-penix-jr-expected-to-start-for-the-falcons-00039917","about":"https://deltasunday.com/games/2026-week-9-cin-at-atl"},{"id":"qb:NYG:00-0039923","date":"2026-11-03T02:10:20.977+00:00","kind":"qb","game_id":"401873044","teams":["NYG"],"title":"J.J. McCarthy expected to start for the Giants","body":"Jaxson Dart started last time out. Elo's quarterback adjustment for the Giants is now -88 points on Giants at Eagles.","more":["Expected starters come from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied: anyone listed out, doubtful or on injured reserve is skipped, and the next name up is the starter. The site checks every three hours. FiveThirtyEight did this step by hand each week; here it is a rule.","The quarterback adjustment moves a team's Elo by 3.3 points per point of the quarterback's rolling value against the team's. A backup with no record starts a fixed distance below the starter; a rookie starts at his draft-slot prior. The market usually knows first, so The System, which weights the market three to one, has most of this already."],"facts":[{"label":"Expected starter","value":"J.J. McCarthy"},{"label":"Last starter","value":"Jaxson Dart"},{"label":"Elo QB adjustment","value":"-88"},{"label":"Kickoff","value":"Sunday 1:00 PM"}],"href":"/games/2026-week-9-nyg-at-phi","slug":"j-j-mccarthy-expected-to-start-for-the-giants-00039923","url":"https://deltasunday.com/wire/j-j-mccarthy-expected-to-start-for-the-giants-00039923","about":"https://deltasunday.com/games/2026-week-9-nyg-at-phi"},{"id":"qb:MIN:00-0035228","date":"2026-11-03T02:10:20.977+00:00","kind":"qb","game_id":"401873051","teams":["MIN"],"title":"Kyler Murray expected to start for the Vikings","body":"Carson Wentz started last time out. Elo's quarterback adjustment for the Vikings is now +100 points on Bills at Vikings.","more":["Expected starters come from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied: anyone listed out, doubtful or on injured reserve is skipped, and the next name up is the starter. The site checks every three hours. FiveThirtyEight did this step by hand each week; here it is a rule.","The quarterback adjustment moves a team's Elo by 3.3 points per point of the quarterback's rolling value against the team's. A backup with no record starts a fixed distance below the starter; a rookie starts at his draft-slot prior. The market usually knows first, so The System, which weights the market three to one, has most of this already."],"facts":[{"label":"Expected starter","value":"Kyler Murray"},{"label":"Last starter","value":"Carson Wentz"},{"label":"Elo QB adjustment","value":"+100"},{"label":"Kickoff","value":"Monday 8:15 PM"}],"href":"/games/2026-week-9-buf-at-min","slug":"kyler-murray-expected-to-start-for-the-vikings-00035228","url":"https://deltasunday.com/wire/kyler-murray-expected-to-start-for-the-vikings-00035228","about":"https://deltasunday.com/games/2026-week-9-buf-at-min"},{"id":"qb:ARI:00-0035289","date":"2026-11-03T02:10:20.977+00:00","kind":"qb","game_id":"401873048","teams":["ARI"],"title":"Gardner Minshew II expected to start for the Cardinals","body":"Jacoby Brissett started last time out. Elo's quarterback adjustment for the Cardinals is now -87 points on Cardinals at Seahawks.","more":["Expected starters come from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied: anyone listed out, doubtful or on injured reserve is skipped, and the next name up is the starter. The site checks every three hours. FiveThirtyEight did this step by hand each week; here it is a rule.","The quarterback adjustment moves a team's Elo by 3.3 points per point of the quarterback's rolling value against the team's. A backup with no record starts a fixed distance below the starter; a rookie starts at his draft-slot prior. The market usually knows first, so The System, which weights the market three to one, has most of this already."],"facts":[{"label":"Expected starter","value":"Gardner Minshew II"},{"label":"Last starter","value":"Jacoby Brissett"},{"label":"Elo QB adjustment","value":"-87"},{"label":"Kickoff","value":"Sunday 4:25 PM"}],"href":"/games/2026-week-9-ari-at-sea","slug":"gardner-minshew-ii-expected-to-start-for-the-cardinals-00035289","url":"https://deltasunday.com/wire/gardner-minshew-ii-expected-to-start-for-the-cardinals-00035289","about":"https://deltasunday.com/games/2026-week-9-ari-at-sea"},{"id":"qb:BAL:00-0035993","date":"2026-11-03T02:10:20.977+00:00","kind":"qb","game_id":"401873037","teams":["BAL"],"title":"Tyler Huntley expected to start for the Ravens","body":"Lamar Jackson started last time out. Elo's quarterback adjustment for the Ravens is now -16 points on Jaguars at Ravens.","more":["Expected starters come from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied: anyone listed out, doubtful or on injured reserve is skipped, and the next name up is the starter. The site checks every three hours. FiveThirtyEight did this step by hand each week; here it is a rule.","The quarterback adjustment moves a team's Elo by 3.3 points per point of the quarterback's rolling value against the team's. A backup with no record starts a fixed distance below the starter; a rookie starts at his draft-slot prior. The market usually knows first, so The System, which weights the market three to one, has most of this already."],"facts":[{"label":"Expected starter","value":"Tyler Huntley"},{"label":"Last starter","value":"Lamar Jackson"},{"label":"Elo QB adjustment","value":"-16"},{"label":"Kickoff","value":"Thursday 8:15 PM"}],"href":"/games/2026-week-9-jax-at-bal","slug":"tyler-huntley-expected-to-start-for-the-ravens-00035993","url":"https://deltasunday.com/wire/tyler-huntley-expected-to-start-for-the-ravens-00035993","about":"https://deltasunday.com/games/2026-week-9-jax-at-bal"},{"id":"qb:PHI:00-0038400","date":"2026-11-03T02:10:20.977+00:00","kind":"qb","game_id":"401873044","teams":["PHI"],"title":"Tanner McKee expected to start for the Eagles","body":"Jalen Hurts started last time out. Elo's quarterback adjustment for the Eagles is now -29 points on Giants at Eagles.","more":["Expected starters come from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied: anyone listed out, doubtful or on injured reserve is skipped, and the next name up is the starter. The site checks every three hours. FiveThirtyEight did this step by hand each week; here it is a rule.","The quarterback adjustment moves a team's Elo by 3.3 points per point of the quarterback's rolling value against the team's. A backup with no record starts a fixed distance below the starter; a rookie starts at his draft-slot prior. The market usually knows first, so The System, which weights the market three to one, has most of this already."],"facts":[{"label":"Expected starter","value":"Tanner McKee"},{"label":"Last starter","value":"Jalen Hurts"},{"label":"Elo QB adjustment","value":"-29"},{"label":"Kickoff","value":"Sunday 1:00 PM"}],"href":"/games/2026-week-9-nyg-at-phi","slug":"tanner-mckee-expected-to-start-for-the-eagles-00038400","url":"https://deltasunday.com/wire/tanner-mckee-expected-to-start-for-the-eagles-00038400","about":"https://deltasunday.com/games/2026-week-9-nyg-at-phi"},{"id":"qb:SEA:00-0034869","date":"2026-11-03T02:10:20.977+00:00","kind":"qb","game_id":"401873048","teams":["SEA"],"title":"Sam Darnold expected to start for the Seahawks","body":"Drew Lock started last time out. Elo's quarterback adjustment for the Seahawks is now -2 points on Cardinals at Seahawks.","more":["Expected starters come from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied: anyone listed out, doubtful or on injured reserve is skipped, and the next name up is the starter. The site checks every three hours. FiveThirtyEight did this step by hand each week; here it is a rule.","The quarterback adjustment moves a team's Elo by 3.3 points per point of the quarterback's rolling value against the team's. A backup with no record starts a fixed distance below the starter; a rookie starts at his draft-slot prior. The market usually knows first, so The System, which weights the market three to one, has most of this already."],"facts":[{"label":"Expected starter","value":"Sam Darnold"},{"label":"Last starter","value":"Drew Lock"},{"label":"Elo QB adjustment","value":"-2"},{"label":"Kickoff","value":"Sunday 4:25 PM"}],"href":"/games/2026-week-9-ari-at-sea","slug":"sam-darnold-expected-to-start-for-the-seahawks-00034869","url":"https://deltasunday.com/wire/sam-darnold-expected-to-start-for-the-seahawks-00034869","about":"https://deltasunday.com/games/2026-week-9-ari-at-sea"},{"id":"lines:2-9","slug":"line-moves-2026-week-9","date":"2026-11-02T13:32:42.89+00:00","kind":"lines","teams":["BAL","JAX","PHI","NYG","WSH","LAR","MIA","DET","SF","LV","CHI","TB"],"title":"Line moves for Week 9: money toward the Jaguars, Giants, Rams and 3 more","body":"Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below.","more":["A move of three points or more in three days is unusual; most NFL lines drift a point or two all week. It usually means news, an injury report, a quarterback decision, or a large bet, that the market is pricing before it shows up anywhere else.","Elo does not see news, so its numbers have not moved. That leaves Elo and the market more than ten points apart on 3 of these 6 games, the spot where, over 27 seasons, the market was right and Elo's side won about half the time.","The System weights the market three to one over Elo, so it follows a move like this most of the way. If you have a pick on one of these games, the question is whether you know why the money moved."],"facts":[{"label":"JAX at BAL","value":"59% → 21% for BAL; Elo 40%"},{"label":"JAX at BAL, Polymarket","value":"59% → 21%"},{"label":"JAX at BAL, Kalshi","value":"56% → 21%"},{"label":"JAX at BAL, Sportsbooks","value":"58% → 22%"},{"label":"NYG at PHI","value":"46% → 40% for PHI; Elo 47%"},{"label":"NYG at PHI, Kalshi","value":"46% → 40%"},{"label":"NYG at PHI, Polymarket","value":"46% → 39%"},{"label":"NYG at PHI, Sportsbooks","value":"48% → 42%"},{"label":"LAR at WSH","value":"35% → 30% for WSH; Elo 40%"},{"label":"LAR at WSH, Polymarket","value":"35% → 30%"},{"label":"LAR at WSH, Kalshi","value":"35% → 31%"},{"label":"LAR at WSH, Sportsbooks","value":"33% → 32%"},{"label":"DET at MIA","value":"22% → 26% for MIA; Elo 41%"},{"label":"DET at MIA, Polymarket","value":"22% → 26%"},{"label":"DET at MIA, Kalshi","value":"20% → 26%"},{"label":"DET at MIA, Sportsbooks","value":"23% → 26%"},{"label":"LV at SF","value":"84% → 80% for SF; Elo 77%"},{"label":"LV at SF, Kalshi","value":"84% → 80%"},{"label":"LV at SF, Polymarket","value":"83% → 79%"},{"label":"LV at SF, Sportsbooks","value":"82% → 80%"},{"label":"TB at CHI","value":"74% → 71% for CHI; Elo 68%"},{"label":"TB at CHI, Polymarket","value":"74% → 71%"},{"label":"TB at CHI, Kalshi","value":"73% → 72%"},{"label":"TB at CHI, Sportsbooks","value":"71% → 70%"}],"href":"/markets","url":"https://deltasunday.com/wire/line-moves-2026-week-9","about":"https://deltasunday.com/markets"},{"id":"final:401873035","date":"2026-11-02T04:30:15.920527+00:00","kind":"final","game_id":"401873035","teams":["WSH","PHI"],"title":"Final: Commanders 27, Eagles 10","body":"Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders, Week 8. The Commanders won 27 to 10; the game turned on (Shotgun) T.McKee sacked at WAS 44 for -7 yards (D.Armstrong). FUMBLES (D.Armstrong), RECO. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.","more":["The expected result: the market had the Commanders at 69%, Elo at 66%, The System at 70%. Best forecaster on this game: The System (+16.0).","The swing: (Shotgun) T.McKee sacked at WAS 44 for -7 yards (D.Armstrong). FUMBLES (D.Armstrong), RECOVERED by WAS-C.Omenihu at WAS 40. in the third quarter at 2:59, which moved the home side's chances from 62% to 75%.","The Commanders won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.","Elo: Commanders +23 to 1443, Eagles -23 to 1401. The quarterback adjustment going in was WSH +15, PHI +17.","3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +11.1 and 3 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged +15.4 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Homer, Commanders 72%, +17.2."],"facts":[{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"Elo: Commanders 66%, +13.4"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The market: Commanders 69%, +15.4"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The System: Commanders 70%, +16.0"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The crowd: Commanders 63%, +11.3"},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Largest lead: Commanders by 17. Lead changes: 1."},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Commanders's live win probability ranged from 35% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model)."},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Q3 1:33: Drew Stevens 25 Yd Field Goal  (PHI 10, WSH 16)"},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Q4 3:43: Drew Stevens 42 Yd Field Goal (PHI 10, WSH 19)"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Total yards: PHI 268, WSH 339"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Yards per play: PHI 3.9, WSH 5.9"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Third downs: PHI 5-15, WSH 5-13"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Turnovers: PHI 2, WSH 1"},{"label":"Quarterbacks and Elo","value":"Tanner McKee (PHI): 23/34, 212 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, QBR 72.2"},{"label":"Quarterbacks and Elo","value":"Jayden Daniels (WSH): 16/29, 217 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 90.7"}],"href":"/games/2026-week-8-phi-at-wsh#report","slug":"final-commanders-27-eagles-10-01873035","url":"https://deltasunday.com/wire/final-commanders-27-eagles-10-01873035","about":"https://deltasunday.com/games/2026-week-8-phi-at-wsh#report"},{"id":"elo:2-8","slug":"elo-movers-2026-week-8","date":"2026-11-02T04:30:14.364+00:00","kind":"elo","teams":["TB","WSH","DET","PIT","ARI","ATL","PHI","MIN","CLE","DAL"],"title":"Week 8 Elo movers so far: Buccaneers up 25, Falcons down 25","body":"Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457.","more":["Elo moves after every game: the winner takes points from the loser, more for an upset and more for a big margin, scaled by K = 20. A swing of 25 is a large one-week move; typical is 10 to 20.","Ratings feed next week's numbers directly, so these moves are already in the Predictions page. Elo alone trails the market over the long run, which is why The System weights it a quarter, but it is the part of the forecast that explains itself."],"facts":[{"label":"Tampa Bay Buccaneers ↑","value":"+25 → 1523"},{"label":"Washington Commanders ↑","value":"+23 → 1443"},{"label":"Detroit Lions ↑","value":"+22 → 1569"},{"label":"Pittsburgh Steelers ↑","value":"+22 → 1578"},{"label":"Arizona Cardinals ↑","value":"+21 → 1439"},{"label":"Atlanta Falcons ↓","value":"-25 → 1457"},{"label":"Philadelphia Eagles ↓","value":"-23 → 1401"},{"label":"Minnesota Vikings ↓","value":"-22 → 1584"},{"label":"Cleveland Browns ↓","value":"-22 → 1450"},{"label":"Dallas Cowboys ↓","value":"-21 → 1443"}],"href":"/recap?w=2-8","url":"https://deltasunday.com/wire/elo-movers-2026-week-8","about":"https://deltasunday.com/recap?w=2-8"},{"id":"final:401873033","date":"2026-11-02T00:42:45.950647+00:00","kind":"final","game_id":"401873033","teams":["DEN","KC"],"title":"Final: Broncos 28, Chiefs 24","body":"Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos, Week 8. The Broncos won 28 to 24; the game turned on (Shotgun) PENALTY on KC-J.Moore, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 1 - No Play.. Attendance 76,831. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.","more":["A close call on paper: the market had the Broncos at 50%, Elo at 57%, The System at 52%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (+6.5).","The swing: (Shotgun) PENALTY on KC-J.Moore, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 1 - No Play. in the fourth quarter at 0:04, which moved the home side's chances from 30% to 60%.","The Chiefs outgained the Broncos, 399 to 294; the difference was elsewhere.","Elo: Broncos +13 to 1617, Chiefs -13 to 1539. The quarterback adjustment going in was DEN -1, KC +46.","3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -3.1 and 0 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged +0.9 and 8 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Homer, Broncos 54%, +3.8."],"facts":[{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"Elo: Broncos 57%, +6.5"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The market: Broncos 50%, +0.0"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The System: Broncos 52%, +2.0"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The crowd: Broncos 47%, -3.1"},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Largest lead: Chiefs by 11. Lead changes: 2."},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Broncos's live win probability ranged from 8% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model)."},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Q3 1:38: Noah Gray 4 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick) (KC 24, DEN 13)"},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Q4 8:55: Nate Adkins 2 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Bo Nix Pass to Jaylen Waddle for Two-Point Conversion) (KC 24, DEN 21)"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Total yards: KC 399, DEN 294"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Yards per play: KC 6.0, DEN 5.2"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Third downs: KC 6-14, DEN 2-11"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Turnovers: KC 0, DEN 0"},{"label":"Quarterbacks and Elo","value":"Patrick Mahomes (KC): 30/41, 321 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, QBR 120.1"},{"label":"Quarterbacks and Elo","value":"Bo Nix (DEN): 20/32, 222 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 103.9"}],"href":"/games/2026-week-8-kc-at-den#report","slug":"final-broncos-28-chiefs-24-01873033","url":"https://deltasunday.com/wire/final-broncos-28-chiefs-24-01873033","about":"https://deltasunday.com/games/2026-week-8-kc-at-den#report"},{"id":"final:401873034","date":"2026-11-02T00:33:47.053386+00:00","kind":"final","game_id":"401873034","teams":["MIA","NE"],"title":"Final: Patriots 24, Dolphins 19","body":"New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins, Week 8. The Patriots won 24 to 19; the game turned on (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to K.Williams (M.Taaffe).New England challenge. Attendance 59,023. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.","more":["The expected result: the market had the Patriots at 76%, Elo at 63%, The System at 70%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+19.2).","The swing: (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to K.Williams (M.Taaffe).New England challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right to K.Williams for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky. in the third quarter at 9:23, which moved the home side's chances from 55% to 40%.","The Patriots won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.","Elo: Dolphins -13 to 1369, Patriots +13 to 1599. The quarterback adjustment going in was MIA +90, NE +1.","3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +16.6 and 3 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged +16.6 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Marketeer, Patriots 76%, +19.2."],"facts":[{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"Elo: Patriots 63%, +11.3"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The market: Patriots 76%, +19.2"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The System: Patriots 70%, +16.0"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The crowd: Patriots 71%, +16.6"},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Largest lead: Patriots by 11. Lead changes: 2."},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Patriots's live win probability ranged from 36% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model)."},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Q3 0:59: Drake Maye 2 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick) (NE 17, MIA 13)"},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Q4 12:39: DeMario Douglas 48 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick) (NE 24, MIA 13)"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Total yards: NE 313, MIA 269"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Yards per play: NE 5.3, MIA 4.5"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Third downs: NE 6-14, MIA 7-14"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Turnovers: NE 1, MIA 1"},{"label":"Quarterbacks and Elo","value":"Drake Maye (NE): 16/20, 199 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 141.5"},{"label":"Quarterbacks and Elo","value":"Malik Willis (MIA): 21/32, 211 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, QBR 92.1"}],"href":"/games/2026-week-8-ne-at-mia#report","slug":"final-patriots-24-dolphins-19-01873034","url":"https://deltasunday.com/wire/final-patriots-24-dolphins-19-01873034","about":"https://deltasunday.com/games/2026-week-8-ne-at-mia#report"},{"id":"final:401873032","date":"2026-11-01T23:55:16.419807+00:00","kind":"final","game_id":"401873032","teams":["LAR","LAC"],"title":"Final: Rams 24, Chargers 9","body":"Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams, Week 8. The Rams won 24 to 9; the game turned on (7:22) (Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short right intended for C.Kolar INTERCEPTED by Q.Lake at . Attendance 73,621. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.","more":["The expected result: the market had the Rams at 73%, Elo at 71%, The System at 74%. Best forecaster on this game: The System (+18.2).","The swing: (7:22) (Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short right intended for C.Kolar INTERCEPTED by Q.Lake at LA 36. Q.Lake to LAC 19 for 45 yards (Q.Johnston). Penalty on LAC-L.McConkey, Offensive Pass Interference, declined. in the first quarter at 7:22, which moved the home side's chances from 70% to 81%.","The Chargers outgained the Rams (295 to 281 yards) and lost on turnovers (2 to 1). The better team on the day lost.","Elo: Rams +15 to 1575, Chargers -15 to 1392. The quarterback adjustment going in was LAR 0, LAC +18.","3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +16.4 and 3 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged +18.3 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Presser, Rams 80%, +21.0."],"facts":[{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"Elo: Rams 71%, +16.6"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The market: Rams 73%, +17.7"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The System: Rams 74%, +18.2"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The crowd: Rams 71%, +16.6"},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Largest lead: Rams by 15. Lead changes: 2."},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Rams's live win probability ranged from 49% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model)."},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Q2 0:19: Kyren Williams 1 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick) (LAC 9, LAR 10)"},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Q3 10:42: Blake Corum 23 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick) (LAC 9, LAR 17)"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Total yards: LAC 295, LAR 281"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Yards per play: LAC 5.0, LAR 5.3"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Third downs: LAC 6-15, LAR 3-11"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Turnovers: LAC 2, LAR 1"},{"label":"Quarterbacks and Elo","value":"Justin Herbert (LAC): 24/32, 257 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, QBR 72"},{"label":"Quarterbacks and Elo","value":"Matthew Stafford (LAR): 17/25, 157 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 81.6"}],"href":"/games/2026-week-8-lac-at-lar#report","slug":"final-rams-24-chargers-9-01873032","url":"https://deltasunday.com/wire/final-rams-24-chargers-9-01873032","about":"https://deltasunday.com/games/2026-week-8-lac-at-lar#report"},{"id":"final:401873031","date":"2026-11-01T21:45:16.477823+00:00","kind":"final","game_id":"401873031","teams":["CIN","TEN"],"title":"Final: Bengals 43, Titans 36: back and forth","body":"Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals, Week 8. The Bengals won 43 to 36; the game turned on (Shotgun) C.Ward sacked at TEN 42 for -13 yards (D.Lawrence).. Attendance 66,209. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.","more":["The expected result: the market had the Bengals at 88%, Elo at 83%, The System at 88%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+23.6).","This was the lock (Cincinnati Bengals) this week: it hit.","The swing: (Shotgun) C.Ward sacked at TEN 42 for -13 yards (D.Lawrence). in the fourth quarter at 0:32, which moved the home side's chances from 32% to 59%.","The Bengals won the yards, 510 to 440.","Elo: Bengals +6 to 1568, Titans -6 to 1326. The quarterback adjustment going in was CIN +17, TEN +19.","3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +22.1 and 3 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged +23.1 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Homer, Bengals 89%, +23.8."],"facts":[{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"Elo: Bengals 83%, +22.1"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The market: Bengals 88%, +23.6"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The System: Bengals 88%, +23.6"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The crowd: Bengals 83%, +22.1"},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Largest lead: Titans by 13. Lead changes: 5."},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Bengals's live win probability ranged from 17% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model)."},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Q4 3:46: Wan'Dale Robinson 15 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Cam Ward Pass to Gunnar Helm for Two-Point Conversion) (TEN 36, CIN 29)"},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Q4 1:17: Tee Higgins 18 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick) (TEN 36, CIN 36)"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Total yards: TEN 440, CIN 510"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Yards per play: TEN 6.3, CIN 7.3"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Third downs: TEN 5-12, CIN 7-10"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Turnovers: TEN 2, CIN 4"},{"label":"Quarterbacks and Elo","value":"Cam Ward (TEN): 26/40, 304 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 104.6"},{"label":"Quarterbacks and Elo","value":"Joe Burrow (CIN): 38/48, 462 yds, 5 TD, 3 INT, QBR 115.5"}],"href":"/games/2026-week-8-ten-at-cin#report","slug":"final-bengals-43-titans-36-back-and-forth-01873031","url":"https://deltasunday.com/wire/final-bengals-43-titans-36-back-and-forth-01873031","about":"https://deltasunday.com/games/2026-week-8-ten-at-cin#report"},{"id":"final:401873024","date":"2026-11-01T21:41:54.68968+00:00","kind":"final","game_id":"401873024","teams":["DAL","ARI"],"title":"Final: Cardinals 33, Cowboys 30: the upset","body":"Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys, Week 8. The Cardinals won 33 to 30 as a 75% underdog by the market; the game turned on (Shotgun) G.Minshew pass short middle to Mi.Wilson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Ryland extra. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.","more":["An upset: the market had the Cardinals at 25%, Elo at 30%, The System at 26%. Best forecaster on this game: The crowd (-22.6).","The swing: (Shotgun) G.Minshew pass short middle to Mi.Wilson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Ryland extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin. in the fourth quarter at 0:06, which moved the home side's chances from 78% to 4%.","The Cardinals won the yards, 467 to 261.","Elo: Cowboys -21 to 1443, Cardinals +21 to 1439. The quarterback adjustment going in was DAL +17, ARI -40.","3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -22.6 and 0 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged -29.8 and 0 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Kalm, Cowboys 68%, -21.2."],"facts":[{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"Elo: Cardinals 30%, -24.0"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The market: Cardinals 25%, -31.2"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The System: Cardinals 26%, -29.8"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The crowd: Cardinals 31%, -22.6"},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Largest lead: Cowboys by 14. Lead changes: 1."},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Cardinals's live win probability ranged from 1% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model)."},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Q4 1:09: Brandon Aubrey 41 Yd Field Goal (ARI 24, DAL 30)"},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Q4 0:06: Michael Wilson 13 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew II (Chad Ryland PAT Failed) (ARI 30, DAL 30)"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Total yards: ARI 467, DAL 261"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Yards per play: ARI 6.0, DAL 3.6"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Third downs: ARI 8-18, DAL 6-16"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Turnovers: ARI 2, DAL 0"},{"label":"Quarterbacks and Elo","value":"Gardner Minshew II (ARI): 17/23, 188 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, QBR 137.3"},{"label":"Quarterbacks and Elo","value":"Dak Prescott (DAL): 19/29, 195 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 96.2"}],"href":"/games/2026-week-8-ari-at-dal#report","slug":"final-cardinals-33-cowboys-30-the-upset-01873024","url":"https://deltasunday.com/wire/final-cardinals-33-cowboys-30-the-upset-01873024","about":"https://deltasunday.com/games/2026-week-8-ari-at-dal#report"},{"id":"final:401873026","date":"2026-11-01T21:25:16.618188+00:00","kind":"final","game_id":"401873026","teams":["BUF","BAL"],"title":"Final: Bills 36, Ravens 10","body":"Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills, Week 8. The Bills won 36 to 10; the game turned on (Shotgun) T.Huntley sacked at BLT 33 for -7 yards (C.Bishop). FUMBLES (C.Bishop) [C.Bishop. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.","more":["A close call on paper: the market had the Bills at 61%, Elo at 75%, The System at 65%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (+18.8).","The swing: (Shotgun) T.Huntley sacked at BLT 33 for -7 yards (C.Bishop). FUMBLES (C.Bishop) [C.Bishop], touched at BLT 32, RECOVERED by BUF-K.Elarms-Orr at BLT 20. in the second quarter at 14:10, which moved the home side's chances from 67% to 77%.","The Bills won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.","Elo: Bills +18 to 1646, Ravens -18 to 1503. The quarterback adjustment going in was BUF -9, BAL +13.","3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +13.9 and 3 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged +11.4 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Mendo, Bills 68%, +14.8."],"facts":[{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"Elo: Bills 75%, +18.8"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The market: Bills 61%, +9.8"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The System: Bills 65%, +12.8"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The crowd: Bills 67%, +14.1"},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Largest lead: Bills by 26. Lead changes: 0."},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Bills's live win probability ranged from 62% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model)."},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Q3 8:59: James Cook III 5 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick) (BAL 10, BUF 23)"},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Q4 12:18: DJ Moore 11 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) (BAL 10, BUF 29)"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Total yards: BAL 144, BUF 426"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Yards per play: BAL 2.9, BUF 5.6"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Third downs: BAL 3-13, BUF 4-14"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Turnovers: BAL 3, BUF 2"},{"label":"Quarterbacks and Elo","value":"Joe Fagnano (BAL): 10/21, 91 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, QBR 40"},{"label":"Quarterbacks and Elo","value":"Josh Allen (BUF): 21/34, 289 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, QBR 96.3"}],"href":"/games/2026-week-8-bal-at-buf#report","slug":"final-bills-36-ravens-10-01873026","url":"https://deltasunday.com/wire/final-bills-36-ravens-10-01873026","about":"https://deltasunday.com/games/2026-week-8-bal-at-buf#report"},{"id":"final:401873029","date":"2026-11-01T21:10:16.545967+00:00","kind":"final","game_id":"401873029","teams":["NYJ","LV"],"title":"Final: Raiders 38, Jets 33: back and forth","body":"Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets, Week 8. The Raiders won 38 to 33; the game turned on A.McNamara kicks 60 yards from NYJ 35 to LV 5. D.Laube for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extr. Attendance 70,080. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.","more":["A close call on paper: the market had the Raiders at 46%, Elo at 50%, The System at 47%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (+0.0).","The swing: A.McNamara kicks 60 yards from NYJ 35 to LV 5. D.Laube for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole. in the second quarter at 10:44, which moved the home side's chances from 64% to 47%.","The Jets outgained the Raiders (439 to 333 yards) and lost on turnovers (1 to 0). The better team on the day lost.","Elo: Jets -18 to 1380, Raiders +18 to 1414. The quarterback adjustment going in was NYJ +22, LV +70.","3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +0.3 and 1 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged -3.4 and 0 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Kalm, Raiders 51%, +1.0."],"facts":[{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"Elo: Raiders 50%, +0.0"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The market: Raiders 46%, -4.2"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The System: Raiders 47%, -3.1"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The crowd: Raiders 50%, +0.0"},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Largest lead: Jets by 9. Lead changes: 5."},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Raiders's live win probability ranged from 20% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model)."},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Q4 11:33: Jalen Nailor 2 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick) (LV 35, NYJ 30)"},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Q4 4:31: Jason Sanders 31 Yd Field Goal (LV 35, NYJ 33)"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Total yards: LV 333, NYJ 439"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Yards per play: LV 5.6, NYJ 7.2"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Third downs: LV 7-11, NYJ 4-11"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Turnovers: LV 0, NYJ 1"},{"label":"Quarterbacks and Elo","value":"Kirk Cousins (LV): 19/26, 247 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, QBR 141"},{"label":"Quarterbacks and Elo","value":"Geno Smith (NYJ): 20/32, 290 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, QBR 99.7"}],"href":"/games/2026-week-8-lv-at-nyj#report","slug":"final-raiders-38-jets-33-back-and-forth-01873029","url":"https://deltasunday.com/wire/final-raiders-38-jets-33-back-and-forth-01873029","about":"https://deltasunday.com/games/2026-week-8-lv-at-nyj#report"},{"id":"final:401873027","date":"2026-11-01T21:10:16.36007+00:00","kind":"final","game_id":"401873027","teams":["PIT","CLE"],"title":"Final: Steelers 27, Browns 6","body":"Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 8. The Steelers won 27 to 6; the game turned on (Shotgun) D.Watson sacked at CLV 45 for -5 yards (sack split by P.Queen and C.Heyward). FU. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.","more":["A close call on paper: the market had the Steelers at 65%, Elo at 64%, The System at 67%. Best forecaster on this game: The System (+14.1).","The swing: (Shotgun) D.Watson sacked at CLV 45 for -5 yards (sack split by P.Queen and C.Heyward). FUMBLES (P.Queen) [P.Queen], touched at CLV 45, RECOVERED by PIT-K.Benton at CLV 45. The fumble was assisted by replay. in the first quarter at 10:41, which moved the home side's chances from 62% to 71%.","The Steelers won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.","Elo: Steelers +22 to 1578, Browns -22 to 1450. The quarterback adjustment going in was PIT -2, CLE +34.","3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +12.7 and 3 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged +13.4 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Presser, Steelers 72%, +17.2."],"facts":[{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"Elo: Steelers 64%, +12.0"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The market: Steelers 65%, +12.8"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The System: Steelers 67%, +14.1"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The crowd: Steelers 65%, +12.8"},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Largest lead: Steelers by 21. Lead changes: 0."},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Steelers's live win probability ranged from 61% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model)."},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Q2 0:45: Andre Szmyt 49 Yd Field Goal (CLE 6, PIT 13)"},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Q2 0:01: Pat Freiermuth 1 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick) (CLE 6, PIT 20)"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Total yards: CLE 319, PIT 361"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Yards per play: CLE 5.0, PIT 6.1"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Third downs: CLE 4-13, PIT 4-11"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Turnovers: CLE 2, PIT 1"},{"label":"Quarterbacks and Elo","value":"Deshaun Watson (CLE): 27/39, 324 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, QBR 94.4"},{"label":"Quarterbacks and Elo","value":"Aaron Rodgers (PIT): 13/25, 172 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, QBR 57.4"}],"href":"/games/2026-week-8-cle-at-pit#report","slug":"final-steelers-27-browns-6-01873027","url":"https://deltasunday.com/wire/final-steelers-27-browns-6-01873027","about":"https://deltasunday.com/games/2026-week-8-cle-at-pit#report"},{"id":"final:401873030","date":"2026-11-01T21:10:16.213266+00:00","kind":"final","game_id":"401873030","teams":["DET","MIN"],"title":"Final: Lions 19, Vikings 15: back and forth","body":"Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions, Week 8. The Lions won 19 to 15; the game turned on K.Murray pass deep middle to J.Addison to DET 10 for 51 yards (K.Dorsey).. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.","more":["A close call on paper: the market had the Lions at 62%, Elo at 34%, The System at 55%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+10.6).","This was the bold (Minnesota Vikings) this week: it missed.","The swing: K.Murray pass deep middle to J.Addison to DET 10 for 51 yards (K.Dorsey). in the fourth quarter at 10:16, which moved the home side's chances from 69% to 53%.","The Lions won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.","Elo: Lions +22 to 1569, Vikings -22 to 1584. The quarterback adjustment going in was DET +0, MIN +100.","3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +1.6 and 2 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged +4.0 and 8 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Exchange, Lions 63%, +11.3."],"facts":[{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"Elo: Lions 34%, -18.6"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The market: Lions 62%, +10.6"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The System: Lions 55%, +4.8"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The crowd: Lions 52%, +2.0"},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Largest lead: Lions by 5. Lead changes: 4."},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Lions's live win probability ranged from 36% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model)."},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Q3 4:40: Jahmyr Gibbs 30 Yd Rush (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) (MIN 7, DET 12)"},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Q4 8:44: T.J. Hockenson 8 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Kyler Murray Pass to Jordan Addison for Two-Point Conversion) (MIN 15, DET 12)"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Total yards: MIN 266, DET 384"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Yards per play: MIN 5.3, DET 5.6"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Third downs: MIN 3-10, DET 5-13"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Turnovers: MIN 1, DET 1"},{"label":"Quarterbacks and Elo","value":"Kyler Murray (MIN): 17/29, 210 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, QBR 89.7"},{"label":"Quarterbacks and Elo","value":"Jared Goff (DET): 18/25, 176 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 88.1"}],"href":"/games/2026-week-8-min-at-det#report","slug":"final-lions-19-vikings-15-back-and-forth-01873030","url":"https://deltasunday.com/wire/final-lions-19-vikings-15-back-and-forth-01873030","about":"https://deltasunday.com/games/2026-week-8-min-at-det#report"},{"id":"final:401873028","date":"2026-11-01T21:10:16.081294+00:00","kind":"final","game_id":"401873028","teams":["JAX","IND"],"title":"Final: Jaguars 42, Colts 7","body":"Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars, Week 8. The Jaguars won 42 to 7; the game turned on (Shotgun) J.Taylor FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 49, RECOVERED by JAX-Bry.Thomas at 50. JAX-D.H. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.","more":["The expected result: the market had the Jaguars at 81%, Elo at 78%, The System at 79%. Best forecaster on this game: The bot crowd (+21.8).","The swing: (Shotgun) J.Taylor FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 49, RECOVERED by JAX-Bry.Thomas at 50. JAX-D.Hamilton was injured during the play. in the second quarter at 9:11, which moved the home side's chances from 80% to 87%.","The Jaguars won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.","Elo: Jaguars +14 to 1605, Colts -14 to 1434.","3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +20.3 and 3 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged +21.6 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Presser, Jaguars 85%, +22.8."],"facts":[{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"Elo: Jaguars 78%, +20.2"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The market: Jaguars 81%, +21.4"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The System: Jaguars 79%, +20.6"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The crowd: Jaguars 78%, +20.2"},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Largest lead: Jaguars by 35. Lead changes: 0."},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Jaguars's live win probability ranged from 69% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model)."},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Q3 9:08: Chris Rodriguez Jr. 28 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick) (IND 0, JAX 35)"},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Q3 3:59: Josh Downs 6 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Spencer Shrader Kick) (IND 7, JAX 35)"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Total yards: IND 243, JAX 366"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Yards per play: IND 4.0, JAX 6.9"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Third downs: IND 3-11, JAX 6-12"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Turnovers: IND 3, JAX 1"},{"label":"Quarterbacks and Elo","value":"Daniel Jones (IND): 19/28, 144 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, QBR 62.2"},{"label":"Quarterbacks and Elo","value":"Trevor Lawrence (JAX): 10/14, 210 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, QBR 153.3"}],"href":"/games/2026-week-8-ind-at-jax#report","slug":"final-jaguars-42-colts-7-01873028","url":"https://deltasunday.com/wire/final-jaguars-42-colts-7-01873028","about":"https://deltasunday.com/games/2026-week-8-ind-at-jax#report"},{"id":"final:401873025","date":"2026-11-01T20:53:02.130884+00:00","kind":"final","game_id":"401873025","teams":["TB","ATL"],"title":"Final: Buccaneers 16, Falcons 0","body":"Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 8. The Buccaneers won 16 to 0; the game turned on M.Penix pass short right intended for D.London INTERCEPTED by A.Anzalone at ATL 41. A.Anza. Attendance 61,036. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.","more":["A close call on paper: the market had the Buccaneers at 54%, Elo at 55%, The System at 54%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (+4.8).","The swing: M.Penix pass short right intended for D.London INTERCEPTED by A.Anzalone at ATL 41. A.Anzalone to ATL 33 for 8 yards (D.London).PENALTY on ATL-D.London, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 33. in the first quarter at 7:35, which moved the home side's chances from 72% to 82%.","The Buccaneers won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.","Elo: Buccaneers +25 to 1523, Falcons -25 to 1457. The quarterback adjustment going in was TB +0, ATL +28.","3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +1.3 and 3 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged +4.2 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Homer, Buccaneers 58%, +7.4."],"facts":[{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"Elo: Buccaneers 55%, +4.8"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The market: Buccaneers 54%, +3.8"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The System: Buccaneers 54%, +3.8"},{"label":"Against the forecasts","value":"The crowd: Buccaneers 51%, +1.0"},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Largest lead: Buccaneers by 16. Lead changes: 0."},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Buccaneers's live win probability ranged from 62% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model)."},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Q1 4:02: Chase McLaughlin 34 Yd Field Goal (ATL 0, TB 6)"},{"label":"How it happened","value":"Q2 4:04: Chase McLaughlin 42 Yd Field Goal (ATL 0, TB 9)"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Total yards: ATL 224, TB 322"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Yards per play: ATL 4.3, TB 5.4"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Third downs: ATL 0-12, TB 4-13"},{"label":"The box score","value":"Turnovers: ATL 4, TB 1"},{"label":"Quarterbacks and Elo","value":"Michael Penix Jr. (ATL): 8/24, 125 yds, 0 TD, 4 INT, QBR 12"},{"label":"Quarterbacks and Elo","value":"Baker Mayfield (TB): 0/3, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, QBR 39.6"}],"href":"/games/2026-week-8-atl-at-tb#report","slug":"final-buccaneers-16-falcons-0-01873025","url":"https://deltasunday.com/wire/final-buccaneers-16-falcons-0-01873025","about":"https://deltasunday.com/games/2026-week-8-atl-at-tb#report"},{"id":"picks:2-9","date":"2026-10-30T00:19:09.860584+00:00","kind":"picks","title":"Week 9: the lock and the bold call are frozen","body":"Our two picks for the week are set and will not change. The lock is the game Elo and the market agree on most (84% over 27 seasons); the bold call is where they disagree most. Signed-in players can see both.","more":["Both are chosen by rule, not opinion, before the week's first kickoff, once at least half the games have a market line. The lock rule went 434–76 over 27 seasons against a 79% forecast; the bold call went 246–264 while Elo claimed 62%, which is why it is shown as the contrarian view. Neither changes after it freezes, and each keeps a public season record."],"facts":[{"label":"Lock rule, 1999–2025","value":"434–76 (85%)"},{"label":"Bold call, 1999–2025","value":"246–264 (48%)"}],"href":"/predictions?w=2-9","slug":"week-9-the-lock-and-the-bold-call-are-frozen-picks29","url":"https://deltasunday.com/wire/week-9-the-lock-and-the-bold-call-are-frozen-picks29","about":"https://deltasunday.com/predictions?w=2-9"},{"id":"standings:2026:7","date":"2026-10-27T03:20:14.798+00:00","kind":"standings","teams":["BUF","CLE","JAX","KC","NYG","MIN","CAR","SF"],"title":"The division picture after week 7: 1 unbeaten, 1 winless","body":"AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers.","more":["Records are the scoreboard; the playoff odds on the Playoffs page are the forecast, from 3,000 simulated seasons that already know the schedule and the ratings. Early in the season the two disagree a lot, and the odds are usually the better guide to who finishes where."],"facts":[{"label":"AFC East: Buffalo Bills","value":"5-1"},{"label":"AFC East: New England Patriots","value":"4-3"},{"label":"AFC East: New York Jets","value":"2-5"},{"label":"AFC East: Miami Dolphins","value":"1-5"},{"label":"AFC North: Cleveland Browns","value":"5-2"},{"label":"AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers","value":"5-2"},{"label":"AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals","value":"4-2"},{"label":"AFC North: Baltimore Ravens","value":"4-3"},{"label":"AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars","value":"4-2"},{"label":"AFC South: Houston Texans","value":"2-5"},{"label":"AFC South: Indianapolis Colts","value":"2-5"},{"label":"AFC South: Tennessee Titans","value":"1-6"},{"label":"AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs","value":"5-1"},{"label":"AFC West: Denver Broncos","value":"5-2"},{"label":"AFC West: Las Vegas Raiders","value":"3-4"},{"label":"AFC West: Los Angeles Chargers","value":"0-6"},{"label":"NFC East: New York Giants","value":"4-2-1"},{"label":"NFC East: Dallas Cowboys","value":"3-4"},{"label":"NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles","value":"2-5"},{"label":"NFC East: Washington Commanders","value":"1-4-1"},{"label":"NFC North: Minnesota Vikings","value":"6-0"},{"label":"NFC North: Chicago Bears","value":"5-2"},{"label":"NFC North: Detroit Lions","value":"4-2"},{"label":"NFC North: Green Bay Packers","value":"4-3"},{"label":"NFC South: Carolina Panthers","value":"3-3"},{"label":"NFC South: Atlanta Falcons","value":"3-4"},{"label":"NFC South: New Orleans Saints","value":"2-5"},{"label":"NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers","value":"2-5"},{"label":"NFC West: San Francisco 49ers","value":"6-1"},{"label":"NFC West: Seattle Seahawks","value":"4-3"},{"label":"NFC West: Los Angeles Rams","value":"3-4"},{"label":"NFC West: Arizona Cardinals","value":"2-5"}],"href":"/playoffs","slug":"the-division-picture-after-week-7-1-unbeaten-1-winless-ngs20267","url":"https://deltasunday.com/wire/the-division-picture-after-week-7-1-unbeaten-1-winless-ngs20267","about":"https://deltasunday.com/playoffs"},{"id":"odds:2-6","slug":"playoff-odds-movers-2026-week-6","date":"2026-10-20T12:00:00Z","kind":"odds","teams":["CHI","CAR","CLE","BUF","ARI","ATL","BAL","CIN"],"title":"Playoff odds movers: Bears up 19, Falcons down 24","body":"Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons.","more":["The simulation plays out the remaining schedule three thousand times on Elo's numbers, settles ties with the NFL's tiebreakers, and counts how often each team gets in. Odds move for two reasons: a team's own results, and results elsewhere that change the tiebreak picture. Early in the season most teams sit between 20% and 80%; the picture sharpens fast after week 10."],"facts":[{"label":"Chicago Bears ↑","value":"56% → 75%"},{"label":"Carolina Panthers ↑","value":"55% → 71%"},{"label":"Cleveland Browns ↑","value":"33% → 48%"},{"label":"Buffalo Bills ↑","value":"86% → 90%"},{"label":"Arizona Cardinals ↑","value":"0% → 2%"},{"label":"Atlanta Falcons ↓","value":"40% → 16%"},{"label":"Baltimore Ravens ↓","value":"82% → 61%"},{"label":"Cincinnati Bengals ↓","value":"59% → 55%"}],"href":"/playoffs","url":"https://deltasunday.com/wire/playoff-odds-movers-2026-week-6","about":"https://deltasunday.com/playoffs"}]}