September 26, 2026
Prices, and saying less about the market
Two tools for prices, a claim taken back, most of the site opened to visitors, and email sign-in fixed for phones.
Every price is a forecast. A sportsbook's −150 says the favorite wins 60% of the time, plus the book's margin; a Kalshi contract at 60¢ says the same thing with a fee. Delta Sunday already scores those markets next to Elo every week, so two tools now use them directly. The price check takes any price you are offered and shows what it charges, how much of it is the cut, and how it compares with every forecaster on the site, with a plain verdict: value, fair, or bad. The bet tracker scores the prices you actually took against the market's closing number, the betting version of the question the leaderboard asks of your picks. Neither is advice; how it works says what a verdict is and is not.
Then a claim taken back. The homepage said The System "edges the markets." Over 27 seasons it is 14 points a season ahead with a standard error of 10, ahead in 16 seasons and behind in 11, on rules chosen with those same seasons. That is even, not ahead. Against Elo the gap is real: 119 a season, ahead in 24 of 27. The site now says so, and The System shows the numbers.
Visitors without an account now see most of the site: Pools, the game plan, the weekly breakdown, and The System's side on every game, with its number on one featured game a week and on every game once it kicks off. The lock and bold call open at kickoff.
And email sign-in links work when you tap them in a phone's mail app. They used to work only in the browser that asked for them.