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The gap between the models is where the points are.
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Scores and schedule from ESPN. Rest, lines and box scores from nflverse. Ratings seeded from FiveThirtyEight's final Elo and their history to 1920. Markets from The Odds API, Kalshi and Polymarket. Scoring follows FiveThirtyEight's forecasting game.
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Week 2 breakdown

The members page walks through every game of the week: our lock and bold call with the reasoning, the spots with an edge, line movement since the picks froze, where the markets disagree with each other, and a suggested slider for every game.

This week's lock: BAL. Locks are 0–0 this season and went 84% over 24 seasons.
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