Week 8 breakdown

Tight agreement 6 games

Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.

• CAR at GB — Green Bay Packers over the Panthers: Elo 64%, market 64%, System 66%. Tight agreement: go above both.
• CLE at PIT — Pittsburgh Steelers over the Browns: Elo 64%, market 65%, System 67%. Tight agreement: go above both. Watson is worth 34 Elo.
• IND at JAX — Jacksonville Jaguars over the Colts: Elo 78%, market 81%, System 79%. Tight agreement: go above both. JAX off a bye; wind 12 mph, 79°F (heat hurts favorites).
• LAC at LAR — Los Angeles Rams over the Chargers: Elo 71%, market 73%, System 74%. Tight agreement: go above both. Herbert is worth 18 Elo; LAC off a bye.
• PHI at WSH — Washington Commanders over the Eagles: Elo 66%, market 69%, System 70%. Tight agreement: go above both. Hurts is worth 17 Elo; WSH off a bye.
• CHI at SEA — Seattle Seahawks over the Bears: Elo 59%, market 62%, System 65%. Tight agreement: go above both. CHI off a bye; wind 2 mph, 46°F (cold helps favorites).

Where Elo and the market disagree 3 games

Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.

• MIN at DET — Detroit Lions over the Vikings: Elo 34%, market 62%, System 55%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Murray is worth 100 Elo.
• BAL at BUF — Buffalo Bills over the Ravens: Elo 75%, market 61%, System 65%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. BUF off a bye.
• NE at MIA — New England Patriots over the Dolphins: Elo 63%, market 76%, System 70%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo; NE off a bye; wind 5 mph, 78°F (heat hurts favorites).

Games that swing the most

Importance is how far the league's playoff odds move between a home win and an away win, from simulated seasons. Quality is the strength of the two teams. Both 0–100.

• ATL at TB: importance 52, quality 30
• CAR at GB: importance 51, quality 30
• MIN at DET: importance 48, quality 59
• CHI at SEA: importance 48, quality 74
• ARI at DAL: importance 44, quality 14

Line movement since the picks froze

• CAR at GB: GB 59% → 64% (money on GB)
• MIN at DET: DET 58% → 62% (money on DET)
• NE at MIA: MIA 21% → 24% (money on MIA)
• ATL at TB: TB 51% → 54% (money on TB)

Where the markets disagree with each other

The books, Kalshi and Polymarket are within 4 points of each other on every game.

Every game, with a suggested slider

The suggestion is the blend, which is also The System. The Game plan turns it into a week: which games to press, which to keep near 50, and how hard to lean given your place on the leaderboard. Adjust for what you know that the models don't.

Week 7 in review