Elo ratings
Average is 1505. Every 25 points of gap is about one point of spread; home field is worth 48. QB shown is who the model expects to start next. Updated Mon, Nov 2, 9:43 PM ET.
| # | Team | QB | Record | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Buffalo Bills | Josh Allen | 6-1 | 1646 |
| 2 |  Seattle Seahawks | Drew Lock | 4-3 | 1643 |
| 3 |  San Francisco 49ers | Brock Purdy | 6-1 | 1619 |
| 4 |  Denver Broncos | Bo Nix | 6-2 | 1617 |
| 5 |  Jacksonville Jaguars | Trevor Lawrence | 5-2 | 1605 |
| 6 |  Chicago Bears | Caleb Williams | 5-2 | 1604 |
| 7 |  New England Patriots | Drake Maye | 5-3 | 1599 |
| 8 |  Minnesota Vikings | Carson Wentz | 6-1 | 1584 |
| 9 |  Pittsburgh Steelers | Aaron Rodgers | 6-2 | 1578 |
| 10 |  Los Angeles Rams | Matthew Stafford | 4-4 | 1575 |
| 11 |  Detroit Lions | Jared Goff | 5-2 | 1569 |
| 12 |  Cincinnati Bengals | Joe Burrow | 5-2 | 1568 |
| 13 |  Kansas City Chiefs | Patrick Mahomes | 5-2 | 1539 |
| 14 |  Green Bay Packers | Jordan Love | 5-3 | 1533 |
| 15 |  Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Baker Mayfield | 3-5 | 1523 |
| 16 | TBD | 0-0 | 1505 | |
| 17 |  New York Giants | Jaxson Dart | 4-2-1 | 1504 |
| 18 |  Baltimore Ravens | Lamar Jackson | 4-4 | 1503 |
| 19 |  Houston Texans | C.J. Stroud | 2-5 | 1498 |
| 20 |  Atlanta Falcons | Cooper Rush | 3-5 | 1457 |
| 21 |  New Orleans Saints | Tyler Shough | 2-5 | 1451 |
| 22 |  Cleveland Browns | Deshaun Watson | 5-3 | 1450 |
| 23 |  Carolina Panthers | Bryce Young | 3-4 | 1446 |
| 24 |  Washington Commanders | Jayden Daniels | 2-4-1 | 1443 |
| 25 |  Dallas Cowboys | Dak Prescott | 3-5 | 1443 |
| 26 |  Arizona Cardinals | Jacoby Brissett | 3-5 | 1439 |
| 27 |  Indianapolis Colts | Daniel Jones | 2-6 | 1434 |
| 28 |  Las Vegas Raiders | Kirk Cousins | 4-4 | 1414 |
| 29 |  Philadelphia Eagles | Jalen Hurts | 2-6 | 1401 |
| 30 |  Los Angeles Chargers | Justin Herbert | 0-7 | 1392 |
| 31 |  New York Jets | Geno Smith | 2-6 | 1380 |
| 32 |  Miami Dolphins | Malik Willis | 1-6 | 1369 |
| 33 |  Tennessee Titans | Cam Ward | 1-7 | 1326 |