Systems
Build your own forecaster from the same levers ours uses: how much Elo, what to do when the models agree or disagree, weather, stretch, a cap. Backtest it on 27 replayed seasons, 1999 to 2022 plus ours, with the points split by spot, confidence and part of the season, apply it to your picks in one click, and if you make it public it's scored on the leaderboard under your name, beside The System and the markets. How the levers work.
Design a systemStart from a preset or from The System's own settings.
Public systems this season
Scored on closing numbers like every forecaster. For scale: The System +327.1, the closing line +295.8.
| # | System | By | Settings | Games | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maybe | Kalm | 25% Elo / 75% market · +5 on tight agreement (within 2) · +7 on the lock · weather on · coin flips to 50 · cap 79 | 119 | +340.5 |
| 2 | Bold | baba | 50% Elo / 50% market · +5 on tight agreement (within 4) · +2 on the lock · weather on · stretch ×1.2 | 119 | +337.5 |
| 3 | Cautious | baba | 15% Elo / 85% market · +2 on tight agreement (within 4) · +2 on the lock · weather on · stretch ×0.9 · cap 85 | 119 | +321.8 |
| 4 | Pure Elo | baba | 100% Elo / 0% market · cap 97 | 119 | +307.7 |
| 5 | Pure market | baba | 0% Elo / 100% market · cap 97 | 119 | +294.7 |
| 6 | Strong | baba | 25% Elo / 75% market · +7 on tight agreement (within 4) · +7 on the lock · market on big disagreements · weather on · stretch ×1.2 · cap 97 | 119 | +290.1 |