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Delta Sunday
The gap between the models is where the points are.
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Scores and schedule from ESPN. Rest, lines and box scores from nflverse. Ratings seeded from FiveThirtyEight's final Elo and their history to 1920. Markets from The Odds API, Kalshi and Polymarket. Scoring follows FiveThirtyEight's forecasting game.
Data refreshed Fri 6:24 AM. Refreshes itself on visits: every 3 minutes on game days, otherwise every 30. How it works · FAQ · Data

Leaderboard

17 games scored this season. Games you skip count as zero, so Elo plays every one. Playoff games count double. Sportsbooks, Kalshi and Polymarket are scored on their closing numbers, so you can see whether anyone beats the market.

Elo has +45.3 points.
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Entire seasonWeek 2Week 1
#PlayerGamesPoints
1Closing spread17+78.2
2The blend17+77.4
3The System17+77.4
4Elo (the model)17+45.3

Our picks of the week

The lock is the game Elo and the market are most sure about together; the bold call is where they disagree most, on Elo's side.

WeekKindPickEloMarketResultElo pts
Week 3LockSF vs ARI74%74%Pending—
Week 3BoldMIA vs KC52%26%Pending—
Week 2LockBAL vs NO72%78%Pending—
Week 2BoldMIA at SF33%11%Pending—