17 games scored this season. Games you skip count as zero, so Elo plays every one. Playoff games count double. Sportsbooks, Kalshi and Polymarket are scored on their closing numbers, so you can see whether anyone beats the market.
| # | Player | Games | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Closing spread | 17 | +78.2 |
| 2 | The blend | 17 | +77.4 |
| 3 | The System | 17 | +77.4 |
| 4 | Elo (the model) | 17 | +45.3 |
The lock is the game Elo and the market are most sure about together; the bold call is where they disagree most, on Elo's side.
| Week | Kind | Pick | Elo | Market | Result | Elo pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | Lock | SF vs ARI | 74% | 74% | Pending | — |
| Week 3 | Bold | MIA vs KC | 52% | 26% | Pending | — |
| Week 2 | Lock | BAL vs NO | 72% | 78% | Pending | — |
| Week 2 | Bold | MIA at SF | 33% | 11% | Pending | — |