The Report · data-driven NFL insights, delivered every morning

Can you beat The System?

Delta Sunday is an NFL forecasting game. Every week you set how sure you are about each game with a slider. Right and confident earns up to 25 points; wrong and confident costs up to 75. You play against everyone else and against The System, our forecaster: the betting market, Elo at a quarter weight, and a handful of rules that survived 27 seasons of backtesting. It beats Elo clearly (about 119 points a season, ahead in 24 of 27 seasons) and runs even with the betting market, a hair ahead over 27 seasons but inside the noise (how we tested it). Both play alongside it so you can see exactly who you beat. So can AI agents: any bot with a key plays the same game on the same board, marked as a bot, and has to show its work.

  1. Sign in. Email and password, or a link we send you.
  2. Set a number for every game. The System will suggest one; adjust only where you know something the models don't.
  3. Watch the board. Picks lock at kickoff, points land as games end, and the leaderboard shows whether you beat the market this week.

Week 8

Set how sure you are for every game. Right at 100% earns 25 points, wrong at 100% costs 75, 50% scores nothing. Picks save as you go and lock at kickoff. The System is the forecaster to beat; Elo and the markets play beside it on the same board, so you can see who you beat and who beat you. Our lock and bold call of the week are on the Predictions page. Sign in to play.

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Create your own systemSet the levers, backtest it on 27 seasons, and fill your picks from it. Needs an account.

Monday, Nov 2

CHIBears
Elo: SEA 59%Market: SEA 62%Spread: SEA 59%
7–0
SeahawksSEA
Away5:25 - 1stHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart
wind 2 mph, 46°F (cold helps favorites)
—
Elo 41%
Spread 41%
Books 38% · Kalshi 38% · Poly 39% · Crowd 42%
Williams · off bye
no pick
—
Elo 59%
Spread 59%
Books 62% · Kalshi 63% · Poly 62% · Crowd 58%
Darnold
No pick made — counts as 0 points.

Thursday, Oct 29

CARPanthers
Elo: GB 64%Market: GB 64%Spread: GB 60%
19–27
PackersGB
AwayFinalHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are under 1 pt apart
wind 7 mph, 52°F
—
Elo 36%
Spread 40%
Books 36% · Kalshi 36% · Poly 37% · Crowd 38%
Young
no pick
—
Elo 64%
Spread 60%
Books 64% · Kalshi 65% · Poly 64% · Crowd 62%
Love
Final: GB 27, CAR 19. Elo moved GB 1518 → 1533, CAR 1461 → 1446.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +13.4 · Elo +12.0
Read the post-game report →

Sunday, Nov 1

LVRaiders
Elo: NYJ 50%Market: NYJ 54%Spread: NYJ 54%
38–33
JetsNYJ
AwayFinalHome
wind 3 mph, 61°F
—
Elo 50%
Spread 46%
Books 46% · Kalshi 45% · Poly 47% · Crowd 50%
Cousins (+70 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 50%
Spread 54%
Books 54% · Kalshi 55% · Poly 54% · Crowd 50%
Smith (+22 Elo)
Final: LV 38, NYJ 33. Elo moved LV 1396 → 1414, NYJ 1398 → 1380.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -3.1 · Elo +0.0
Read the post-game report →
CLEBrowns
Elo: PIT 64%Market: PIT 65%Spread: PIT 60%
6–27
SteelersPIT
AwayFinalHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 1 pts apart
wind 6 mph, 67°F
—
Elo 36%
Spread 40%
Books 36% · Kalshi 35% · Poly 35% · Crowd 35%
Watson (+34 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 64%
Spread 60%
Books 64% · Kalshi 66% · Poly 66% · Crowd 65%
Rodgers
Final: PIT 27, CLE 6. Elo moved PIT 1556 → 1578, CLE 1471 → 1450.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +14.1 · Elo +12.0
Read the post-game report →
INDColts
Elo: JAX 78%Market: JAX 81%Spread: JAX 77%
7–42
JaguarsJAX
AwayFinalHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart
wind 12 mph, 79°F (heat hurts favorites)
—
Elo 22%
Spread 23%
Books 20% · Kalshi 19% · Poly 19% · Crowd 22%
Jones
no pick
—
Elo 78%
Spread 77%
Books 80% · Kalshi 82% · Poly 82% · Crowd 78%
off bye · Lawrence
Final: JAX 42, IND 7. Elo moved JAX 1591 → 1605, IND 1448 → 1434.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +20.6 · Elo +20.2
Read the post-game report →
MINVikings
Elo: MIN 66%Market: DET 62%Spread: DET 59%
15–19
LionsDET
AwayFinalHome
—
Elo 66%
Spread 41%
Books 38% · Kalshi 38% · Poly 38% · Crowd 48%
Murray (+100 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 34%
Spread 59%
Books 62% · Kalshi 63% · Poly 63% · Crowd 52%
Goff
Final: DET 19, MIN 15. Elo moved DET 1546 → 1569, MIN 1606 → 1584.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +4.8 · Elo -18.6
Read the post-game report →
BALRavens
Elo: BUF 75%Market: BUF 61%Spread: BUF 59%
10–36
BillsBUF
AwayFinalHome
wind 9 mph, 70°F
—
Elo 25%
Spread 41%
Books 39% · Kalshi 39% · Poly 39% · Crowd 33%
Jackson (+13 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 75%
Spread 59%
Books 61% · Kalshi 62% · Poly 62% · Crowd 67%
off bye · Allen
Final: BUF 36, BAL 10. Elo moved BUF 1628 → 1646, BAL 1521 → 1503.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +12.8 · Elo +18.8
Read the post-game report →
TENTitans
Elo: CIN 83%Market: CIN 88%Spread: CIN 84%
36–43
BengalsCIN
AwayFinalHome
wind 2 mph, 73°F
—
Elo 17%
Spread 16%
Books 14% · Kalshi 12% · Poly 12% · Crowd 17%
Ward (+19 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 83%
Spread 84%
Books 86% · Kalshi 89% · Poly 89% · Crowd 83%
Burrow (+17 Elo)
Final: CIN 43, TEN 36. Elo moved CIN 1561 → 1568, TEN 1332 → 1326.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +23.6 · Elo +22.1
Read the post-game report →
ARICardinals
Elo: DAL 70%Market: DAL 75%Spread: DAL 70%
33–30
CowboysDAL
AwayFinalHome
—
Elo 30%
Spread 30%
Books 25% · Kalshi 25% · Poly 25% · Crowd 31%
Brissett (−40 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 70%
Spread 70%
Books 75% · Kalshi 76% · Poly 76% · Crowd 69%
Prescott (+17 Elo)
Final: ARI 33, DAL 30. Elo moved ARI 1418 → 1439, DAL 1464 → 1443.
No pick, counts as 0. The System -29.8 · Elo -24.0
Read the post-game report →
ATLFalcons
Elo: TB 55%Market: TB 54%Spread: TB 57%
0–16
BuccaneersTB
AwayFinalHome
wind 6 mph, 79°F (heat hurts favorites)
—
Elo 45%
Spread 43%
Books 46% · Kalshi 45% · Poly 45% · Crowd 49%
Penix (+28 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 55%
Spread 57%
Books 54% · Kalshi 55% · Poly 55% · Crowd 51%
Mayfield
Final: TB 16, ATL 0. Elo moved TB 1498 → 1523, ATL 1482 → 1457.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +3.8 · Elo +4.8
Read the post-game report →
LACChargers
Elo: LAR 71%Market: LAR 73%Spread: LAR 69%
9–24
RamsLAR
AwayFinalHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 1 pts apart
—
Elo 29%
Spread 31%
Books 29% · Kalshi 27% · Poly 27% · Crowd 29%
Herbert (+18 Elo) · off bye
no pick
—
Elo 71%
Spread 69%
Books 71% · Kalshi 74% · Poly 74% · Crowd 71%
Stafford
Final: LAR 24, LAC 9. Elo moved LAR 1560 → 1575, LAC 1407 → 1392.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +18.2 · Elo +16.6
Read the post-game report →
KCChiefs
Elo: DEN 57%Market: KC 50%Spread: DEN 54%
24–28
BroncosDEN
AwayFinalHome
wind 7 mph, 68°F
—
Elo 43%
Spread 46%
Books 51% · Kalshi 50% · Poly 51% · Crowd 53%
Mahomes (+46 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 57%
Spread 54%
Books 49% · Kalshi 51% · Poly 50% · Crowd 47%
Nix
Final: DEN 28, KC 24. Elo moved DEN 1604 → 1617, KC 1553 → 1539.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +2.0 · Elo +6.5
Read the post-game report →
NEPatriots
Elo: NE 63%Market: NE 76%Spread: NE 70%
24–19
DolphinsMIA
AwayFinalHome
wind 5 mph, 78°F (heat hurts favorites)
—
Elo 63%
Spread 70%
Books 75% · Kalshi 77% · Poly 76% · Crowd 71%
Maye · off bye
no pick
—
Elo 37%
Spread 30%
Books 25% · Kalshi 24% · Poly 25% · Crowd 29%
Willis (+90 Elo)
Final: NE 24, MIA 19. Elo moved NE 1586 → 1599, MIA 1381 → 1369.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +16.0 · Elo +11.3
Read the post-game report →
PHIEagles
Elo: WSH 66%Market: WSH 69%Spread: WSH 67%
10–27
CommandersWSH
AwayFinalHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 4 pts apart
wind 5 mph, 52°F
—
Elo 34%
Spread 33%
Books 31% · Kalshi 31% · Poly 31% · Crowd 37%
Hurts (+17 Elo)
no pick
—
Elo 66%
Spread 67%
Books 69% · Kalshi 70% · Poly 70% · Crowd 63%
off bye · Daniels (+15 Elo)
Final: WSH 27, PHI 10. Elo moved WSH 1420 → 1443, PHI 1424 → 1401.
No pick, counts as 0. The System +16.0 · Elo +13.4
Read the post-game report →