Jaguars at Ravens $198k, Raiders at 49ers $58k, Packers at Patriots $35k traded on Kalshi and Polymarket. The exchanges and the books agree within four points everywhere. Read more →
The Wire
Short items written from the data as it changes: where the money is moving, weather that will matter, which teams' Elo ratings rose or fell, whose playoff odds shifted, which picks are locked in, and how the week scored. Nobody types these; the numbers do. RSS · JSON
Monday, Nov 2
Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth. Read more →
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Importance 51 of 100, the biggest swing in the league's playoff picture on the schedule. Elo has CHI at 68%. Read more →
Most affected: Jaguars at Ravens (6 out or doubtful). Out at key spots: Jaylinn Hawkins (BAL, S), Lamar Jackson (BAL, QB), Eric Murray (JAX, S), Antonio Johnson (JAX, S). Every game page carries the full list for both teams. Read more →
Cooper Rush started last time out. Elo's quarterback adjustment for the Falcons is now +28 points on Bengals at Falcons. Read more →
Jaxson Dart started last time out. Elo's quarterback adjustment for the Giants is now -88 points on Giants at Eagles. Read more →
Carson Wentz started last time out. Elo's quarterback adjustment for the Vikings is now +100 points on Bills at Vikings. Read more →
Jacoby Brissett started last time out. Elo's quarterback adjustment for the Cardinals is now -87 points on Cardinals at Seahawks. Read more →
Lamar Jackson started last time out. Elo's quarterback adjustment for the Ravens is now -16 points on Jaguars at Ravens. Read more →
Jalen Hurts started last time out. Elo's quarterback adjustment for the Eagles is now -29 points on Giants at Eagles. Read more →
Drew Lock started last time out. Elo's quarterback adjustment for the Seahawks is now -2 points on Cardinals at Seahawks. Read more →
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 37 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Lions at Dolphins, 6 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
Sunday, Nov 1
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders, Week 8. The Commanders won 27 to 10; the game turned on (Shotgun) T.McKee sacked at WAS 44 for -7 yards (D.Armstrong). FUMBLES (D.Armstrong), RECO. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers. Read more →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos, Week 8. The Broncos won 28 to 24; the game turned on (Shotgun) PENALTY on KC-J.Moore, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 1 - No Play.. Attendance 76,831. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers. Read more →
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins, Week 8. The Patriots won 24 to 19; the game turned on (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to K.Williams (M.Taaffe).New England challenge. Attendance 59,023. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers. Read more →
Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams, Week 8. The Rams won 24 to 9; the game turned on (7:22) (Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short right intended for C.Kolar INTERCEPTED by Q.Lake at . Attendance 73,621. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers. Read more →
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals, Week 8. The Bengals won 43 to 36; the game turned on (Shotgun) C.Ward sacked at TEN 42 for -13 yards (D.Lawrence).. Attendance 66,209. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers. Read more →
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys, Week 8. The Cardinals won 33 to 30 as a 75% underdog by the market; the game turned on (Shotgun) G.Minshew pass short middle to Mi.Wilson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Ryland extra. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers. Read more →
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills, Week 8. The Bills won 36 to 10; the game turned on (Shotgun) T.Huntley sacked at BLT 33 for -7 yards (C.Bishop). FUMBLES (C.Bishop) [C.Bishop. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers. Read more →
Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets, Week 8. The Raiders won 38 to 33; the game turned on A.McNamara kicks 60 yards from NYJ 35 to LV 5. D.Laube for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extr. Attendance 70,080. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers. Read more →
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 8. The Steelers won 27 to 6; the game turned on (Shotgun) D.Watson sacked at CLV 45 for -5 yards (sack split by P.Queen and C.Heyward). FU. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers. Read more →
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions, Week 8. The Lions won 19 to 15; the game turned on K.Murray pass deep middle to J.Addison to DET 10 for 51 yards (K.Dorsey).. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers. Read more →
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars, Week 8. The Jaguars won 42 to 7; the game turned on (Shotgun) J.Taylor FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 49, RECOVERED by JAX-Bry.Thomas at 50. JAX-D.H. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers. Read more →
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 8. The Buccaneers won 16 to 0; the game turned on M.Penix pass short right intended for D.London INTERCEPTED by A.Anzalone at ATL 41. A.Anza. Attendance 61,036. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers. Read more →
Thursday, Oct 29
Our two picks for the week are set and will not change. The lock is the game Elo and the market agree on most (84% over 27 seasons); the bold call is where they disagree most. Signed-in players can see both. Read more →
Monday, Oct 26
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Tuesday, Oct 20
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Earlier
Items that are no longer current. Each keeps its page; the numbers are as they stood when it was written.
- money Most money: Bears at Seahawks, $4.7M on the exchanges Mon, Nov 2
- rest Rest this week: 1 team off a bye, 0 on short rest Mon, Nov 2
- spotlight The game that matters most this week: Bears at Seahawks Mon, Nov 2
- injuries Injury report for Week 8: 10 out, 1 doubtful, 11 questionable across 2 games Mon, Nov 2
- qb One team is on a backup quarterback this week Mon, Nov 2
- lines Line moves for Week 8: money toward the Bengals Sun, Nov 1
- weather Weather report for Week 8: 1 game to watch, 1 in wind Fri, Oct 30
- final Final: Packers 27, Panthers 19: back and forth Thu, Oct 29
- final Final: Cowboys 38, Eagles 21: back and forth Mon, Oct 26
- elo Week 7 Elo movers: Buccaneers up 47, Panthers down 47 Mon, Oct 26
- results Week 7: The System +29.6, the closing line +30.0, Elo +6.4 Mon, Oct 26
- money Most money: Cowboys at Eagles, $4.3M on the exchanges Mon, Oct 26
- spotlight The game that matters most this week: Cowboys at Eagles Mon, Oct 26
- injuries Injury report for Week 7: 14 out, 1 doubtful, 10 questionable across 2 games Mon, Oct 26
- qb One team is on a backup quarterback this week Mon, Oct 26
- lines Line moves for Week 7: money toward the Cowboys Sun, Oct 25
- final Final: Seahawks 20, Chiefs 3 Sun, Oct 25
- rest Rest this week: 1 team off a bye, 0 on short rest Sun, Oct 25
- final Final: Rams 35, Raiders 21 Sun, Oct 25
- final Final: Lions 20, Packers 17 Sun, Oct 25
- final Final: Broncos 30, Cardinals 16 Sun, Oct 25
- final Final: Giants 27, Texans 21: the upset Sun, Oct 25
- final Final: Falcons 29, 49ers 20 Sun, Oct 25
- final Final: Browns 27, Titans 24 Sun, Oct 25
- final Final: Bengals 35, Ravens 13 Sun, Oct 25
- final Final: Dolphins 28, Jets 25: the upset Sun, Oct 25
- final Final: Buccaneers 43, Panthers 13 Sun, Oct 25
- final Final: Vikings 16, Colts 10 Sun, Oct 25
- final Final: Steelers 16, Saints 10 Sun, Oct 25
- final Final: Bears 30, Patriots 24 Thu, Oct 22
- picks Week 8: the lock and the bold call are frozen Thu, Oct 22
- qb Jameis Winston expected to start for the Giants Wed, Oct 21
- qb Jalon Daniels expected to start for the Buccaneers Tue, Oct 20
- final Final: 49ers 23, Commanders 17 Mon, Oct 19
- results Week 6: The System -14.4, the closing line -8.3, Elo -5.0 Mon, Oct 19
- elo Week 6 Elo movers: Titans up 32, Colts down 32 Mon, Oct 19
- standings The division picture after week 6: 3 unbeaten, 2 winless Mon, Oct 19
- money Most money: Commanders at 49ers, $4.7M on the exchanges Mon, Oct 19
- spotlight The game that matters most this week: Commanders at 49ers Mon, Oct 19
- injuries Injury report for Week 6: 20 out, 0 doubtful, 5 questionable across 2 games Mon, Oct 19
- qb 2 teams are on a backup quarterback this week Mon, Oct 19
- final Final: Packers 23, Cowboys 13 Sun, Oct 18
- rest Rest this week: 1 team off a bye, 0 on short rest Sun, Oct 18
- final Final: Bills 33, Raiders 30 Sun, Oct 18
- final Final: Chiefs 22, Chargers 6 Sun, Oct 18
- final Final: Cardinals 18, Rams 16: the upset Sun, Oct 18
- lines Line moves for Week 6: money toward the Cowboys Sun, Oct 18
- final Final: Steelers 26, Buccaneers 19 Sun, Oct 18
- final Final: Saints 34, Giants 27 Sun, Oct 18
- final Final: Panthers 25, Eagles 14 Sun, Oct 18
- final Final: Bears 31, Falcons 23 Sun, Oct 18
- final Final: Titans 26, Colts 20: the upset Sun, Oct 18
- final Final: Patriots 26, Jets 19 Sun, Oct 18
- final Final: Browns 13, Ravens 10: the upset Sun, Oct 18
- final Final: Texans 34, Jaguars 31 Sun, Oct 18
- weather Weather report for Week 6: 1 game to watch, 1 in wind Sat, Oct 17
- final Final: Broncos 17, Seahawks 14 Thu, Oct 15
- picks Week 7: the lock and the bold call are frozen Thu, Oct 15
- odds Playoff odds movers: Bengals up 16, Browns down 26 Thu, Oct 15
- qb Tyson Bagent expected to start for the Bears Tue, Oct 13