Predictions · Week 8
The model columns show each model's probability for the home team; our pick is The System’s team and its win probability (shown on the featured game and once a game kicks off; sign up for all of them). Games are sorted into the spots our replays found an edge in, with the record behind each. Once a game ends, the models are scored the way players are, and the week and season tallies show who's forecasting best. Imp. is importance: how much the league's playoff picture swings on the game, from simulated seasons (hover for the game's quality).
| Game | Our pick | Elo | Spread | Books | Kalshi | Polymarket | Blend | System | Crowd | Sharp crowd | Imp. | Spot | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR at GB | GB 66% ✓ | 64% | 60% | 64% | 65% | 64% | 66% | 66% | 62% | 62% | 51 | Tight agreement | CAR 19, GB 27 |
| LV at NYJ | NYJ 53% ✗ | 50% | 54% | 54% | 55% | 54% | 53% | 53% | 50% | 50% | 39 | Coin flips | LV 38, NYJ 33 |
| CLE at PIT | PIT 67% ✓ | 64% | 60% | 64% | 66% | 66% | 67% | 67% | 65% | 65% | 40 | Tight agreement | CLE 6, PIT 27 |
| IND at JAX | JAX 79% ✓ | 78% | 77% | 80% | 82% | 82% | 82% | 79% | 78% | 78% | 37 | Tight agreement | IND 7, JAX 42 |
| MIN at DET Bold call of the week | DET 55% ✓ | 34% | 59% | 62% | 63% | 63% | 55% | 55% | 52% | 52% | 48 | Big disagreement | MIN 15, DET 19 |
| BAL at BUF | BUF 65% ✓ | 75% | 59% | 61% | 62% | 62% | 65% | 65% | 67% | 67% | 43 | Big disagreement | BAL 10, BUF 36 |
| TEN at CIN Lock of the week | CIN 88% ✓ | 83% | 84% | 86% | 89% | 89% | 86% | 88% | 83% | 83% | 34 | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | TEN 36, CIN 43 |
| ARI at DAL | DAL 74% ✗ | 70% | 70% | 75% | 76% | 76% | 74% | 74% | 69% | 69% | 44 | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | ARI 33, DAL 30 |
| ATL at TB | TB 54% ✓ | 55% | 57% | 54% | 55% | 55% | 55% | 54% | 51% | 51% | 52 | Everything else | ATL 0, TB 16 |
| LAC at LAR | LAR 74% ✓ | 71% | 69% | 71% | 74% | 74% | 74% | 74% | 71% | 70% | 34 | Tight agreement | LAC 9, LAR 24 |
| KC at DEN | DEN 52% ✓ | 57% | 54% | 49% | 51% | 50% | 52% | 52% | 47% | 47% | 35 | Everything else | KC 24, DEN 28 |
| NE at MIA | NE 70% ✓ | 37% | 30% | 25% | 24% | 25% | 27% | 30% | 29% | 29% | 35 | Big disagreement | NE 24, MIA 19 |
| PHI at WSH | WSH 70% ✓ | 66% | 67% | 69% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 63% | 62% | 28 | Tight agreement | PHI 10, WSH 27 |
| CHI at SEA | SEA 65% | 59% | 59% | 62% | 63% | 62% | 63% | 65% | 58% | 58% | 48 | Tight agreement | Mon 8:15 PM ET |
| Points this week | +95.1 | +104.1 | +106.6 | +114.9 | +113.7 | +115.7 | +112.4 | +101.6 | +100.3 | on 13 decided games | |||
| Right | 10/13 | 11/13 | 10/13 | 11/13 | 10/13 | 11/13 | 11/13 | 11/13 | 11/13 | ||||
The spots
Each game sorted into the spot the replays found an edge in. Rings are Elo, market and spread; the favorite's logo is in the middle. Tiles turn green or red as games finish.
Tight agreement 6 games · favorite 5 for 5 so far
Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%.
19–27
GB over CAR ✓
Elo 64% · Mkt 64% · Blend 66%
CAR at GB · Final
6–27
PIT over CLE ✓
Elo 64% · Mkt 65% · Blend 67%
CLE at PIT · Final
7–42
JAX over IND ✓
Elo 78% · Mkt 81% · Blend 82%
IND at JAX · Final
9–24
LAR over LAC ✓
Elo 71% · Mkt 73% · Blend 74%
LAC at LAR · Final
10–27
WSH over PHI ✓
Elo 66% · Mkt 69% · Blend 70%
PHI at WSH · Final
SEA over CHI
Elo 59% · Mkt 62% · Blend 63%
CHI at SEA · Mon 8 PM ET
Big disagreement 3 games · favorite 3 for 3 so far
Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time.
Coin flips 1 game · favorite 0 for 1 so far
Leave the slider near 50. A wrong 65% costs more than a right one earns. Replays: these resolved 50/50, and confident picks on them cost the most points per game.
Clear favorite, mild disagreement 2 games · favorite 1 for 2 so far
The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way).
Everything else 2 games · favorite 2 for 2 so far
The blend is as good as anything. No edge found either way in the replays.
Season scoreboard
The models scored as players over every decided game this season, on their pre-kickoff numbers.
| # | Model | Games | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The blend | 119 | +344.5 |
| 2 | Maybe (Kalm) | 119 | +340.5 |
| 3 | Bold (baba) | 119 | +337.5 |
| 4 | The System | 119 | +327.1 |
| 5 | Cautious (baba) | 119 | +321.8 |
| 6 | Elo (the model) | 119 | +307.7 |
| 7 | Pure Elo (baba) | 119 | +307.7 |
| 8 | Presser | 101 | +297.0 |
| 9 | Closing spread | 119 | +295.8 |
| 10 | Pure market (baba) | 119 | +294.7 |
| 11 | Strong (baba) | 119 | +290.1 |
| 12 | QB1 | 101 | +269.0 |
| 13 | The bot crowd | 101 | +267.9 |
| 14 | Scout | 101 | +263.6 |
| 15 | Claudious | 101 | +261.8 |
| 16 | Fader | 101 | +253.0 |
| 17 | Exchange | 101 | +243.9 |
| 18 | Marketeer | 101 | +242.9 |
| 19 | Homer | 101 | +237.2 |
| 20 | The sharp crowd | 46 | +233.3 |
| 21 | The crowd | 46 | +230.4 |
| 22 | Polymarket | 102 | +220.6 |
| 23 | Kalshi | 102 | +218.8 |
| 24 | Sportsbooks | 102 | +211.2 |
| 25 | Contrarian | 101 | +207.7 |