Playoff odds

The rest of the season is simulated 3,000 times every six hours. The latest run was Mon 7:53 PM ET, run 173 this season, 519,000 simulated seasons in all; 120 of 272 regular-season games have been played. Remaining games use Elo's pre-game probability (with QB and rest adjustments), standings use head-to-head, division and conference records as tiebreakers, then the playoffs are played out on current Elo. Trend is each team's playoff probability over the season, one point per day the simulation ran.

AFC

Team	Elo	Proj. W	Playoffs	Division	Bye	Conf.	Title	Trend
AFC East
Buffalo Bills	1646	12.2	97%	74%	31%	30%	17%
New England Patriots	1599	10.3	79%	26%	5%	9%	4%
Miami Dolphins	1369	4.9	<1%	—	—	—	—
New York Jets	1380	4.7	<1%	—	—	—	—
AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals	1568	11.3	87%	44%	10%	8%	4%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1578	11.4	86%	45%	10%	11%	5%
Cleveland Browns	1450	9.4	42%	9%	<1%	1%	<1%
Baltimore Ravens	1503	8.2	12%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars	1605	11.6	97%	95%	15%	17%	9%
Houston Texans	1498	7.4	10%	4%	—	<1%	<1%
Indianapolis Colts	1434	6.1	1%	1%	—	—	—
Tennessee Titans	1326	3.4	<1%	<1%	—	—	—
AFC West
Denver Broncos	1617	11.7	92%	59%	19%	19%	10%
Kansas City Chiefs	1539	10.9	85%	39%	10%	6%	3%
Las Vegas Raiders	1414	7.9	11%	2%	<1%	<1%	—
Los Angeles Chargers	1392	3.3	—	—	—	—	—

NFC

Team	Elo	Proj. W	Playoffs	Division	Bye	Conf.	Title	Trend
NFC East
New York Giants	1504	8.4	56%	55%	<1%	3%	1%
Washington Commanders	1443	7.1	23%	22%	—	1%	<1%
Dallas Cowboys	1443	7.2	21%	20%	—	<1%	<1%
Philadelphia Eagles	1401	5.2	3%	3%	—	<1%	<1%
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings	1584	13.1	99%	79%	54%	23%	11%
Detroit Lions	1569	10.4	75%	11%	5%	8%	3%
Chicago Bears	1604	10.6	72%	8%	4%	10%	5%
Green Bay Packers	1533	9.2	39%	2%	<1%	2%	1%
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1523	7.7	50%	49%	—	3%	1%
Carolina Panthers	1446	7.0	23%	22%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Atlanta Falcons	1457	6.9	19%	18%	—	1%	<1%
New Orleans Saints	1451	6.2	11%	11%	—	<1%	<1%
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers	1619	12.5	97%	77%	31%	27%	14%
Seattle Seahawks	1643	10.9	80%	20%	5%	18%	10%
Los Angeles Rams	1575	8.9	33%	3%	<1%	3%	1%
Arizona Cardinals	1439	5.9	<1%	—	—	—	—

How the simulation works

Every six hours the site plays the rest of the season 3,000 times. In each run every remaining game is decided by Elo's probability for it (a coin weighted by the ratings, home field, rest and the quarterback adjustment), standings are settled with the NFL's tiebreakers (head to head, division record, conference record, then strength of victory), the seven seeds per conference are set, and the playoffs are played on the same ratings. Counting how often each team makes it, wins the division, earns the bye, wins the conference and wins the title gives the odds above. A daily snapshot is kept, which is where the trend lines and the "movers" on The Wire and The Report come from.

The same machinery produces two numbers used elsewhere. Importance, on every game page: play the season with the home team winning and again with it losing, and add up how far every team's playoff odds move between the two. And from week 14 on, which teams are locked into a seed or eliminated whatever they do; those teams rest starters, so their games are forecast on the market's weight rather than Elo's. The odds are also on the API at /api/v1/playoffs, and the method is on How it works.