Playoff odds

3,000 simulated seasons as of Fri 4:37 AM: 17 of 272 regular-season games played. Remaining games use Elo's pre-game probability (with QB and rest adjustments), standings use head-to-head, division and conference records as tiebreakers, then the playoffs are played out on current Elo.

AFC

Team	Elo	Proj. W	Playoffs	Division	Bye	Conf.	Title
AFC East
Buffalo Bills	1612	11.0	86%	66%	25%	28%	15%
New England Patriots	1564	8.8	49%	20%	5%	7%	3%
Miami Dolphins	1440	7.7	26%	8%	1%	1%	<1%
New York Jets	1444	7.4	21%	6%	1%	<1%	<1%
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens	1559	10.8	82%	52%	20%	15%	8%
Cincinnati Bengals	1505	9.4	54%	22%	7%	4%	2%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1526	9.3	53%	21%	6%	5%	2%
Cleveland Browns	1423	7.2	16%	4%	1%	1%	<1%
AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars	1571	10.1	74%	55%	13%	15%	9%
Houston Texans	1556	9.3	59%	37%	6%	9%	4%
Indianapolis Colts	1472	7.0	15%	7%	1%	1%	<1%
Tennessee Titans	1364	5.1	3%	1%	—	<1%	—
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs	1518	9.9	71%	55%	10%	9%	4%
Denver Broncos	1547	8.4	40%	20%	3%	5%	2%
Las Vegas Raiders	1420	8.1	35%	17%	2%	1%	<1%
Los Angeles Chargers	1481	6.8	16%	8%	<1%	1%	<1%

NFC

Team	Elo	Proj. W	Playoffs	Division	Bye	Conf.	Title
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles	1539	10.3	76%	63%	13%	11%	4%
New York Giants	1474	8.2	34%	18%	2%	2%	1%
Washington Commanders	1467	7.5	23%	10%	1%	1%	<1%
Dallas Cowboys	1449	7.2	17%	8%	1%	<1%	<1%
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings	1555	11.0	85%	53%	22%	15%	8%
Chicago Bears	1557	9.9	68%	28%	10%	10%	5%
Detroit Lions	1519	8.9	48%	13%	4%	4%	1%
Green Bay Packers