Game plan · Super Bowl
Sign up and the plan is fitted to you: where you stand on the leaderboard decides whether to protect a lead, play straight, or chase. Below is the same plan for everyone in each mode: which games to press, which to keep near 50, with The System's numbers on this week's featured game and on games that have kicked off.
The recommendation treats week-to-week differences between good players as roughly normal with a 25-point spread, and uses the replay's measured cost and swing of each mode. It's a guide, not a guarantee.
Chase. Stretch every number 15% further from 50. Costs almost nothing in expectation, under 0.1 a week; adds an eighth to the week's swing.
This plan expects 0.0 points this week, give or take 0 (one standard deviation), if The System's numbers are right. Playing straight would expect 0.0.
A typical week lands between 0 and 0. Roughly one week in ten goes worse than 0.
Sign up to apply this planEvery number, your recommended mode, and one button that sets your picks.
Play straight 1 game
Clear favorites with mild disagreement, and the rest. Nothing to exploit; the number is the number.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBD at TBD Sun 6:30 PM ET | TBD 50% | 50% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
Expected points assume The System's probability is the truth; the Nudges page tracks whether it is. The plan is the same for everyone in a mode; what changes with your standing is which mode makes sense.