Bold
by baba · 50% Elo / 50% market · +5 on tight agreement (within 4) · +2 on the lock · weather on · stretch ×1.2
Backtest
Scored as a player on the replayed seasons in the database, against The System, the closing line and Elo. Playoffs doubled. The market here is the closing spread; weather and the lock apply only where recorded.
| Season | Games | Right | This system | The System | Closing line | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 285 | 64% | +882.9 | +974.2 | +974.8 | +681.7 |
| 2024 | 285 | 72% | +1572.0 | +1443.3 | +1349.8 | +1367.8 |
| 2025 | 284 | 68% | +1200.8 | +1197.8 | +1158.0 | +1049.3 |
| Total | 854 | +3655.7 | +3615.3 | +3482.6 | +3098.8 |
Ahead of The System by +40.4 over these seasons. Beware: three seasons is how the 8-point bump fooled us; the 24-season test is the one that counts.
This season
17 games scored, +80.4. The System +77.4, the closing line +78.2.