Strong
by baba · 25% Elo / 75% market · +7 on tight agreement (within 4) · +7 on the lock · market on big disagreements · weather on · stretch ×1.2 · cap 97
Backtest
Scored as a player on every replayed season, 1999 to 2022 from the published Elo and closing spreads plus our own seasons since, against The System, the closing line and Elo. Playoffs doubled. The market here is the closing spread; weather and the lock apply only where recorded.
| Season | Games | Right | This system | The System | Closing line | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 240 | 66% | +638.2 | +773.1 | +780.5 | +711.6 |
| 2000 | 242 | 63% | +621.3 | +745.9 | +690.3 | +671.9 |
| 2001 | 240 | 66% | +625.8 | +719.0 | +640.1 | +670.1 |
| 2002 | 250 | 64% | +756.3 | +858.2 | +841.9 | +820.3 |
| 2003 | 250 | 66% | +918.3 | +941.1 | +907.2 | +765.8 |
| 2004 | 250 | 68% | +892.6 | +994.9 | +969.4 | +938.2 |
| 2005 | 245 | 76% | +1523.3 | +1413.9 | +1400.4 | +1266.5 |
| 2006 | 249 | 59% | +21.2 | +428.1 | +434.8 | +468.2 |
| 2007 | 248 | 68% | +943.7 | +1066.2 | +1094.7 | +859.1 |
| 2008 | 247 | 68% | +770.5 | +894.1 | +946.1 | +721.5 |
| 2009 | 248 | 68% | +1019.6 | +1188.3 | +1228.2 | +1066.3 |
| 2010 | 248 | 66% | +658.1 | +722.8 | +720.4 | +506.1 |
| 2011 | 249 | 67% | +1160.7 | +1175.4 | +1133.2 | +1052.0 |
| 2012 | 249 | 67% | +1137.9 | +1172.3 | +1148.4 | +1006.4 |
| 2013 | 248 | 71% | +1183.1 | +1105.0 | +1087.6 | +991.7 |
| 2014 | 246 | 67% | +1229.2 | +1193.0 | +1168.0 | +1148.3 |
| 2015 | 251 | 63% | +621.7 | +776.3 | +660.7 | +831.9 |
| 2016 | 257 | 66% | +1089.0 | +1101.0 | +987.1 | +1184.9 |
| 2017 | 267 | 69% | +1104.4 | +1171.4 | +1205.6 | +975.7 |
| 2018 | 265 | 66% | +964.4 | +1043.3 | +1005.0 | +887.2 |
| 2019 | 266 | 64% | +885.4 | +984.3 | +981.1 | +773.7 |
| 2020 | 260 | 67% | +1152.7 | +1242.2 | +1274.3 | +1110.4 |
| 2021 | 275 | 63% | +723.1 | +894.2 | +966.5 | +516.7 |
| 2022 | 274 | 66% | +1119.9 | +1152.6 | +1170.9 | +1015.7 |
| 2023 | 285 | 67% | +922.4 | +974.2 | +974.8 | +681.7 |
| 2024 | 285 | 71% | +1534.5 | +1443.3 | +1349.8 | +1367.8 |
| 2025 | 284 | 66% | +1208.9 | +1197.8 | +1158.0 | +1049.3 |
| Total | 6918 | +25426.2 | +27371.9 | +26925.0 | +24059.0 |
Behind The System by +72.1 a season, standard error +97.9, ahead in 5 of 27 seasons. An edge under two standard errors is noise.
Where the points come from
Totals over every replayed season, split by the spot, by this system's own confidence, and by the part of the season. A gain that lives in one slice is a finding; a gain spread thinly is usually variance.
| By spot | Games | This system | The System | Diff | Closing line | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| tight | 2596 | +11199.7 | +13281.9 | -2082.2 | +12974.9 | +12829.1 |
| lean | 1506 | +10023.3 | +9925.8 | +97.5 | +9703.5 | +9754.4 |
| rest | 1344 | +1255.6 | +1233.4 | +22.2 | +1280.8 | +412.3 |
| disagree | 1110 | +2913.7 | +2887.4 | +26.3 | +2957.5 | +1043.5 |
| coinflip | 362 | +33.9 | +43.4 | -9.5 | +8.3 | +19.7 |
| By confidence | Games | This system | The System | Diff | Closing line | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60-70 | 2027 | +2352.9 | +2921.2 | -568.3 | +2953.8 | +1565.7 |
| 70-80 | 1857 | +7257.5 | +7751.0 | -493.5 | +7602.8 | +7038.8 |
| 50-60 | 1471 | +144.8 | +203.2 | -58.4 | +188.1 | -732.2 |
| 80-90 | 1016 | +8220.4 | +8658.3 | -437.9 | +8448.2 | +8443.8 |
| 90+ | 547 | +7450.6 | +7838.2 | -387.6 | +7732.1 | +7742.9 |
| By part of season | Games | This system | The System | Diff | Closing line | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| weeks 1-6 | 2315 | +5856.3 | +6588.7 | -732.4 | +6617.2 | +5322.8 |
| weeks 7-12 | 2215 | +8765.5 | +9247.1 | -481.6 | +9038.4 | +8422.6 |
| weeks 13-18 | 2101 | +8988.8 | +9536.3 | -547.5 | +9361.2 | +8275.4 |
| playoffs | 287 | +1815.6 | +1999.8 | -184.2 | +1908.2 | +2038.2 |
This season
119 games scored, +290.1. The System +327.1, the closing line +295.8.