Final: Rams 24, Chargers 9
Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams, Week 8. The Rams won 24 to 9; the game turned on (7:22) (Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short right intended for C.Kolar INTERCEPTED by Q.Lake at . Attendance 73,621. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
The expected result: the market had the Rams at 73%, Elo at 71%, The System at 74%. Best forecaster on this game: The System (+18.2).
The swing: (7:22) (Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short right intended for C.Kolar INTERCEPTED by Q.Lake at LA 36. Q.Lake to LAC 19 for 45 yards (Q.Johnston). Penalty on LAC-L.McConkey, Offensive Pass Interference, declined. in the first quarter at 7:22, which moved the home side's chances from 70% to 81%.
The Chargers outgained the Rams (295 to 281 yards) and lost on turnovers (2 to 1). The better team on the day lost.
Elo: Rams +15 to 1575, Chargers -15 to 1392. The quarterback adjustment going in was LAR 0, LAC +18.
3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +16.4 and 3 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged +18.3 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Presser, Rams 80%, +21.0.
| Against the forecasts | Elo: Rams 71%, +16.6 |
| Against the forecasts | The market: Rams 73%, +17.7 |
| Against the forecasts | The System: Rams 74%, +18.2 |
| Against the forecasts | The crowd: Rams 71%, +16.6 |
| How it happened | Largest lead: Rams by 15. Lead changes: 2. |
| How it happened | Rams's live win probability ranged from 49% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model). |
| How it happened | Q2 0:19: Kyren Williams 1 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick) (LAC 9, LAR 10) |
| How it happened | Q3 10:42: Blake Corum 23 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick) (LAC 9, LAR 17) |
| The box score | Total yards: LAC 295, LAR 281 |
| The box score | Yards per play: LAC 5.0, LAR 5.3 |
| The box score | Third downs: LAC 6-15, LAR 3-11 |
| The box score | Turnovers: LAC 2, LAR 1 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Justin Herbert (LAC): 24/32, 257 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, QBR 72 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Matthew Stafford (LAR): 17/25, 157 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 81.6 |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.