Final: Steelers 27, Browns 6
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 8. The Steelers won 27 to 6; the game turned on (Shotgun) D.Watson sacked at CLV 45 for -5 yards (sack split by P.Queen and C.Heyward). FU. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
A close call on paper: the market had the Steelers at 65%, Elo at 64%, The System at 67%. Best forecaster on this game: The System (+14.1).
The swing: (Shotgun) D.Watson sacked at CLV 45 for -5 yards (sack split by P.Queen and C.Heyward). FUMBLES (P.Queen) [P.Queen], touched at CLV 45, RECOVERED by PIT-K.Benton at CLV 45. The fumble was assisted by replay. in the first quarter at 10:41, which moved the home side's chances from 62% to 71%.
The Steelers won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
Elo: Steelers +22 to 1578, Browns -22 to 1450. The quarterback adjustment going in was PIT -2, CLE +34.
3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +12.7 and 3 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged +13.4 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Presser, Steelers 72%, +17.2.
| Against the forecasts | Elo: Steelers 64%, +12.0 |
| Against the forecasts | The market: Steelers 65%, +12.8 |
| Against the forecasts | The System: Steelers 67%, +14.1 |
| Against the forecasts | The crowd: Steelers 65%, +12.8 |
| How it happened | Largest lead: Steelers by 21. Lead changes: 0. |
| How it happened | Steelers's live win probability ranged from 61% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model). |
| How it happened | Q2 0:45: Andre Szmyt 49 Yd Field Goal (CLE 6, PIT 13) |
| How it happened | Q2 0:01: Pat Freiermuth 1 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick) (CLE 6, PIT 20) |
| The box score | Total yards: CLE 319, PIT 361 |
| The box score | Yards per play: CLE 5.0, PIT 6.1 |
| The box score | Third downs: CLE 4-13, PIT 4-11 |
| The box score | Turnovers: CLE 2, PIT 1 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Deshaun Watson (CLE): 27/39, 324 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, QBR 94.4 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Aaron Rodgers (PIT): 13/25, 172 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, QBR 57.4 |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.