Line moves for Week 5: money toward the Falcons, Jaguars, Bears and 5 more
Since Friday: Ravens at Falcons, 17 points toward ATL, now 44% for the home side (Elo 47%); Eagles at Jaguars, 15 points toward JAX, now 74% for the home side (Elo 63%); Bears at Packers, 13 points toward CHI, now 42% for the home side (Elo 55%); Broncos at Chargers, 9 points toward DEN, now 38% for the home side (Elo 41%); 49ers at Seahawks, 6 points toward SF, now 57% for the home side (Elo 59%); and 3 more below.
A move of three points or more in three days is unusual; most NFL lines drift a point or two all week. It usually means news, an injury report, a quarterback decision, or a large bet, that the market is pricing before it shows up anywhere else.
Elo does not see news, so its numbers have not moved. That leaves Elo and the market more than ten points apart on 4 of these 8 games, the spot where, over 27 seasons, the market was right and Elo's side won about half the time.
The System weights the market three to one over Elo, so it follows a move like this most of the way. If you have a pick on one of these games, the question is whether you know why the money moved.
| BAL at ATL | 27% → 44% for ATL; Elo 47% |
| BAL at ATL, Polymarket | 27% → 43% |
| BAL at ATL, Kalshi | 28% → 44% |
| BAL at ATL, Sportsbooks | 29% → 41% |
| PHI at JAX | 59% → 74% for JAX; Elo 63% |
| PHI at JAX, Kalshi | 59% → 73% |
| PHI at JAX, Polymarket | 57% → 74% |
| PHI at JAX, Sportsbooks | 57% → 68% |
| CHI at GB | 55% → 42% for GB; Elo 55% |
| CHI at GB, Polymarket | 55% → 42% |
| CHI at GB, Sportsbooks | 55% → 42% |
| CHI at GB, Kalshi | 55% → 43% |
| DEN at LAC | 47% → 38% for LAC; Elo 41% |
| DEN at LAC, Polymarket | 47% → 38% |
| DEN at LAC, Kalshi | 46% → 38% |
| DEN at LAC, Sportsbooks | 46% → 38% |
| SF at SEA | 64% → 57% for SEA; Elo 59% |
| SF at SEA, Polymarket | 64% → 57% |
| SF at SEA, Kalshi | 64% → 59% |
| SF at SEA, Sportsbooks | 62% → 58% |
| CIN at MIA | 19% → 24% for MIA; Elo 50% |
| CIN at MIA, Polymarket | 19% → 24% |
| CIN at MIA, Kalshi | 18% → 24% |
| CIN at MIA, Sportsbooks | 20% → 24% |
| NYG at WSH | 58% → 62% for WSH; Elo 45% |
| NYG at WSH, Kalshi | 58% → 63% |
| NYG at WSH, Polymarket | 60% → 63% |
| NYG at WSH, Sportsbooks | 57% → 62% |
| BUF at LAR | 56% → 60% for LAR; Elo 53% |
| BUF at LAR, Polymarket | 56% → 60% |
| BUF at LAR, Kalshi | 56% → 60% |
| BUF at LAR, Sportsbooks | 57% → 58% |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.