Line moves for Week 9: money toward the Jaguars, Giants, Rams and 3 more
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below.
A move of three points or more in three days is unusual; most NFL lines drift a point or two all week. It usually means news, an injury report, a quarterback decision, or a large bet, that the market is pricing before it shows up anywhere else.
Elo does not see news, so its numbers have not moved. That leaves Elo and the market more than ten points apart on 3 of these 6 games, the spot where, over 27 seasons, the market was right and Elo's side won about half the time.
The System weights the market three to one over Elo, so it follows a move like this most of the way. If you have a pick on one of these games, the question is whether you know why the money moved.
| JAX at BAL | 59% → 21% for BAL; Elo 40% |
| JAX at BAL, Polymarket | 59% → 21% |
| JAX at BAL, Kalshi | 56% → 21% |
| JAX at BAL, Sportsbooks | 58% → 22% |
| NYG at PHI | 46% → 40% for PHI; Elo 47% |
| NYG at PHI, Kalshi | 46% → 40% |
| NYG at PHI, Polymarket | 46% → 39% |
| NYG at PHI, Sportsbooks | 48% → 42% |
| LAR at WSH | 35% → 30% for WSH; Elo 40% |
| LAR at WSH, Polymarket | 35% → 30% |
| LAR at WSH, Kalshi | 35% → 31% |
| LAR at WSH, Sportsbooks | 33% → 32% |
| DET at MIA | 22% → 26% for MIA; Elo 41% |
| DET at MIA, Polymarket | 22% → 26% |
| DET at MIA, Kalshi | 20% → 26% |
| DET at MIA, Sportsbooks | 23% → 26% |
| LV at SF | 84% → 80% for SF; Elo 77% |
| LV at SF, Kalshi | 84% → 80% |
| LV at SF, Polymarket | 83% → 79% |
| LV at SF, Sportsbooks | 82% → 80% |
| TB at CHI | 74% → 71% for CHI; Elo 68% |
| TB at CHI, Polymarket | 74% → 71% |
| TB at CHI, Kalshi | 73% → 72% |
| TB at CHI, Sportsbooks | 71% → 70% |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.