Playoff oddsTuesday, Oct 20, 8:00 AM ET
Playoff odds movers: Bears up 19, Falcons down 24
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons.
The simulation plays out the remaining schedule three thousand times on Elo's numbers, settles ties with the NFL's tiebreakers, and counts how often each team gets in. Odds move for two reasons: a team's own results, and results elsewhere that change the tiebreak picture. Early in the season most teams sit between 20% and 80%; the picture sharpens fast after week 10.
| Chicago Bears ↑ | 56% → 75% |
| Carolina Panthers ↑ | 55% → 71% |
| Cleveland Browns ↑ | 33% → 48% |
| Buffalo Bills ↑ | 86% → 90% |
| Arizona Cardinals ↑ | 0% → 2% |
| Atlanta Falcons ↓ | 40% → 16% |
| Baltimore Ravens ↓ | 82% → 61% |
| Cincinnati Bengals ↓ | 59% → 55% |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.