Playoff oddsFriday, Oct 2, 8:00 AM ET
Playoff odds movers: Bears up 24, Patriots down 27
Since 2026-09-25: Chicago Bears now 38% to make the playoffs; New England Patriots 41%. From 3,000 simulated seasons.
The simulation plays out the remaining schedule three thousand times on Elo's numbers, settles ties with the NFL's tiebreakers, and counts how often each team gets in. Odds move for two reasons: a team's own results, and results elsewhere that change the tiebreak picture. Early in the season most teams sit between 20% and 80%; the picture sharpens fast after week 10.
| Chicago Bears ↑ | 13% → 38% |
| Cleveland Browns ↑ | 33% → 56% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars ↑ | 72% → 86% |
| Washington Commanders ↑ | 8% → 22% |
| Las Vegas Raiders ↑ | 53% → 66% |
| New England Patriots ↓ | 68% → 41% |
| Houston Texans ↓ | 41% → 19% |
| Philadelphia Eagles ↓ | 88% → 71% |
| Cincinnati Bengals ↓ | 79% → 62% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers ↓ | 14% → 2% |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.