Playoff oddsTuesday, Sep 22, 8:00 AM ET
Playoff odds movers: Bengals up 26, Bears down 54
Since 2026-09-19: Cincinnati Bengals now 80% to make the playoffs; Chicago Bears 13%. From 3,000 simulated seasons.
The simulation plays out the remaining schedule three thousand times on Elo's numbers, settles ties with the NFL's tiebreakers, and counts how often each team gets in. Odds move for two reasons: a team's own results, and results elsewhere that change the tiebreak picture. Early in the season most teams sit between 20% and 80%; the picture sharpens fast after week 10.
| Cincinnati Bengals ↑ | 54% → 80% |
| Las Vegas Raiders ↑ | 33% → 55% |
| New Orleans Saints ↑ | 31% → 52% |
| Carolina Panthers ↑ | 19% → 37% |
| Green Bay Packers ↑ | 25% → 42% |
| Chicago Bears ↓ | 67% → 13% |
| New York Giants ↓ | 34% → 7% |
| Baltimore Ravens ↓ | 81% → 58% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers ↓ | 38% → 17% |
| Houston Texans ↓ | 59% → 40% |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.