Playoff oddsMonday, Sep 21, 8:00 AM ET
Playoff odds movers: Bengals up 26, Ravens down 22
Since 2026-09-19: Cincinnati Bengals now 80% to make the playoffs; Baltimore Ravens 59%. From 3,000 simulated seasons.
The simulation plays out the remaining schedule three thousand times on Elo's numbers, settles ties with the NFL's tiebreakers, and counts how often each team gets in. Odds move for two reasons: a team's own results, and results elsewhere that change the tiebreak picture. Early in the season most teams sit between 20% and 80%; the picture sharpens fast after week 10.
| Cincinnati Bengals ↑ | 54% → 80% |
| New Orleans Saints ↑ | 31% → 53% |
| Las Vegas Raiders ↑ | 33% → 54% |
| Carolina Panthers ↑ | 19% → 38% |
| New England Patriots ↑ | 50% → 67% |
| Baltimore Ravens ↓ | 81% → 59% |
| Chicago Bears ↓ | 67% → 45% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers ↓ | 38% → 18% |
| Houston Texans ↓ | 59% → 40% |
| Atlanta Falcons ↓ | 22% → 5% |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.