Playoff oddsTuesday, Sep 22, 8:00 AM ET
Playoff odds movers: Bengals up 27, Bears down 55
Since 2026-09-19: Cincinnati Bengals now 81% to make the playoffs; Chicago Bears 12%. From 3,000 simulated seasons.
The simulation plays out the remaining schedule three thousand times on Elo's numbers, settles ties with the NFL's tiebreakers, and counts how often each team gets in. Odds move for two reasons: a team's own results, and results elsewhere that change the tiebreak picture. Early in the season most teams sit between 20% and 80%; the picture sharpens fast after week 10.
| Cincinnati Bengals ↑ | 54% → 81% |
| Las Vegas Raiders ↑ | 33% → 55% |
| New Orleans Saints ↑ | 31% → 50% |
| Carolina Panthers ↑ | 19% → 38% |
| Green Bay Packers ↑ | 25% → 42% |
| Chicago Bears ↓ | 67% → 12% |
| Baltimore Ravens ↓ | 81% → 56% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers ↓ | 38% → 17% |
| Houston Texans ↓ | 59% → 40% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers ↓ | 53% → 35% |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.