Playoff oddsFriday, Oct 2, 8:00 AM ET
Playoff odds movers: Browns up 24, Patriots down 29
Since 2026-09-25: Cleveland Browns now 56% to make the playoffs; New England Patriots 39%. From 3,000 simulated seasons.
The simulation plays out the remaining schedule three thousand times on Elo's numbers, settles ties with the NFL's tiebreakers, and counts how often each team gets in. Odds move for two reasons: a team's own results, and results elsewhere that change the tiebreak picture. Early in the season most teams sit between 20% and 80%; the picture sharpens fast after week 10.
| Cleveland Browns ↑ | 33% → 56% |
| Chicago Bears ↑ | 13% → 35% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars ↑ | 72% → 86% |
| Washington Commanders ↑ | 8% → 22% |
| Las Vegas Raiders ↑ | 53% → 66% |
| New England Patriots ↓ | 68% → 39% |
| Houston Texans ↓ | 41% → 19% |
| Philadelphia Eagles ↓ | 88% → 70% |
| Cincinnati Bengals ↓ | 79% → 62% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers ↓ | 14% → 2% |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.