Playoff oddsSunday, Sep 27, 8:00 AM ET
Playoff odds movers: Falcons up 26, Bears down 33
Since 2026-09-20: Atlanta Falcons now 30% to make the playoffs; Chicago Bears 14%. From 3,000 simulated seasons.
The simulation plays out the remaining schedule three thousand times on Elo's numbers, settles ties with the NFL's tiebreakers, and counts how often each team gets in. Odds move for two reasons: a team's own results, and results elsewhere that change the tiebreak picture. Early in the season most teams sit between 20% and 80%; the picture sharpens fast after week 10.
| Atlanta Falcons ↑ | 4% → 30% |
| Cleveland Browns ↑ | 19% → 45% |
| Detroit Lions ↑ | 46% → 68% |
| Kansas City Chiefs ↑ | 72% → 90% |
| Los Angeles Rams ↑ | 37% → 54% |
| Chicago Bears ↓ | 47% → 14% |
| New York Giants ↓ | 32% → 10% |
| New England Patriots ↓ | 66% → 46% |
| Miami Dolphins ↓ | 24% → 7% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers ↓ | 32% → 16% |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.