Playoff oddsWednesday, Sep 30, 8:00 AM ET
Playoff odds movers: Falcons up 27, Patriots down 26
Since 2026-09-23: Atlanta Falcons now 39% to make the playoffs; New England Patriots 42%. From 3,000 simulated seasons.
The simulation plays out the remaining schedule three thousand times on Elo's numbers, settles ties with the NFL's tiebreakers, and counts how often each team gets in. Odds move for two reasons: a team's own results, and results elsewhere that change the tiebreak picture. Early in the season most teams sit between 20% and 80%; the picture sharpens fast after week 10.
| Atlanta Falcons ↑ | 12% → 39% |
| Chicago Bears ↑ | 12% → 39% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers ↑ | 36% → 52% |
| Las Vegas Raiders ↑ | 52% → 66% |
| Washington Commanders ↑ | 9% → 23% |
| New England Patriots ↓ | 67% → 42% |
| Green Bay Packers ↓ | 43% → 18% |
| Houston Texans ↓ | 40% → 18% |
| Philadelphia Eagles ↓ | 87% → 69% |
| Cincinnati Bengals ↓ | 80% → 62% |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.