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Playoff odds movers: Falcons up 30, Patriots down 28

Since 2026-09-22: Atlanta Falcons now 41% to make the playoffs; New England Patriots 40%. From 3,000 simulated seasons.

The simulation plays out the remaining schedule three thousand times on Elo's numbers, settles ties with the NFL's tiebreakers, and counts how often each team gets in. Odds move for two reasons: a team's own results, and results elsewhere that change the tiebreak picture. Early in the season most teams sit between 20% and 80%; the picture sharpens fast after week 10.

Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.