Playoff oddsTuesday, Sep 29, 8:00 AM ET
Playoff odds movers: Falcons up 32, Patriots down 28
Since 2026-09-22: Atlanta Falcons now 42% to make the playoffs; New England Patriots 40%. From 3,000 simulated seasons.
The simulation plays out the remaining schedule three thousand times on Elo's numbers, settles ties with the NFL's tiebreakers, and counts how often each team gets in. Odds move for two reasons: a team's own results, and results elsewhere that change the tiebreak picture. Early in the season most teams sit between 20% and 80%; the picture sharpens fast after week 10.
| Atlanta Falcons ↑ | 11% → 42% |
| Chicago Bears ↑ | 12% → 37% |
| Las Vegas Raiders ↑ | 53% → 69% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars ↑ | 70% → 86% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers ↑ | 38% → 50% |
| New England Patriots ↓ | 68% → 40% |
| Green Bay Packers ↓ | 43% → 19% |
| Houston Texans ↓ | 41% → 18% |
| Cincinnati Bengals ↓ | 81% → 60% |
| Philadelphia Eagles ↓ | 87% → 69% |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.