Playoff oddsMonday, Sep 28, 8:00 AM ET
Playoff odds movers: Falcons up 33, Packers down 27
Since 2026-09-21: Atlanta Falcons now 38% to make the playoffs; Green Bay Packers 17%. From 3,000 simulated seasons.
The simulation plays out the remaining schedule three thousand times on Elo's numbers, settles ties with the NFL's tiebreakers, and counts how often each team gets in. Odds move for two reasons: a team's own results, and results elsewhere that change the tiebreak picture. Early in the season most teams sit between 20% and 80%; the picture sharpens fast after week 10.
| Atlanta Falcons ↑ | 5% → 38% |
| Los Angeles Rams ↑ | 37% → 55% |
| Detroit Lions ↑ | 52% → 68% |
| Las Vegas Raiders ↑ | 53% → 69% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars ↑ | 70% → 85% |
| Green Bay Packers ↓ | 44% → 17% |
| New England Patriots ↓ | 67% → 44% |
| New York Giants ↓ | 32% → 12% |
| Cincinnati Bengals ↓ | 83% → 63% |
| New Orleans Saints ↓ | 52% → 34% |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.