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Rest this week: 3 teams off a bye, 1 on short rest

Chargers at Bills: Bills off a bye. Jets at Lions: Lions off a bye. Steelers at Browns: Browns on 4 days' rest; Steelers on 4 days' rest. Packers at Buccaneers: Packers off a bye.

Elo gives a team off a bye 25 rating points, about 2.5 points of win probability; over 27 seasons it is about right (home teams off a bye won 57.7% against 60.3% forecast, away teams 46.3% against 44.7%). Short rest is the Thursday effect: over 267 Thursday games since 1999, home teams won 56% against a 56% forecast, so nothing to adjust for.

Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.