RestSaturday, Oct 3, 4:50 PM ET
Rest this week: 4 teams off a bye, 1 on short rest
Falcons at Saints: Falcons off a bye. Packers at Buccaneers: Packers off a bye. Browns at Jets: Browns off a bye. Colts at Steelers: Steelers off a bye. Buccaneers at Cowboys: Cowboys on 4 days' rest; Buccaneers on 4 days' rest.
Elo gives a team off a bye 25 rating points, about 2.5 points of win probability; over 27 seasons it is about right (home teams off a bye won 57.7% against 60.3% forecast, away teams 46.3% against 44.7%). Short rest is the Thursday effect: over 267 Thursday games since 1999, home teams won 56% against a 56% forecast, so nothing to adjust for.
| ATL at NO | Falcons off a bye |
| GB at TB | Packers off a bye |
| CLE at NYJ | Browns off a bye |
| IND at PIT | Steelers off a bye |
| TB at DAL | Cowboys on 4 days' rest |
| TB at DAL | Buccaneers on 4 days' rest |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.