RestSaturday, Sep 19, 11:03 PM ET
Rest this week: 6 teams off a bye, 1 on short rest
Steelers at Patriots: Patriots off a bye. Seahawks at Cardinals: Seahawks off a bye. Dolphins at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Giants at Rams: Rams off a bye. Falcons at Packers: Packers on 4 days' rest; Falcons on 4 days' rest. Chargers at Bills: Bills off a bye. Jets at Lions: Lions off a bye.
Elo gives a team off a bye 25 rating points, about 2.5 points of win probability; over 24 seasons that is well calibrated (home teams off a bye won 58.8% against 60.2% forecast). Short rest is the Thursday effect: over 259 Thursday games since 1999, home teams won 56% against a 55% forecast, so nothing to adjust for.
| PIT at NE | Patriots off a bye |
| SEA at ARI | Seahawks off a bye |
| MIA at SF | 49ers off a bye |
| NYG at LAR | Rams off a bye |
| ATL at GB | Packers on 4 days' rest |
| ATL at GB | Falcons on 4 days' rest |
| LAC at BUF | Bills off a bye |
| NYJ at DET | Lions off a bye |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.