Weather report for Week 5: 2 games to watch, 1 in wind, 1 in heat
Bengals at Dolphins: 90°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Bears at Packers: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth.
Weather is one of the few things the betting market prices loosely, because it is only known a few days out and most money is down before that. Over 4,500 outdoor games with weather on record, wind was the clearest effect: it takes away the passing edge a favorite usually has, and games score about a point and a half under the total.
The forecast comes from Open-Meteo for each stadium at the kickoff hour and refreshes every six hours, so this can change before kickoff. Each game page shows the current reading.
| CIN at MIA | 13 mph wind, 90°F; Elo MIA 50% |
| CHI at GB | 15 mph wind, 71°F; Elo GB 55% |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.