Weather report for Week 8: 1 game to watch, 1 in wind
From the archive. This item is no longer current; the numbers below are as they stood when it was written.
Patriots at Dolphins: 18 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50.
Weather is one of the few things the betting market prices loosely, because it is only known a few days out and most money is down before that. Over 4,500 outdoor games with weather on record, wind was the clearest effect: it takes away the passing edge a favorite usually has, and games score about a point and a half under the total.
The forecast comes from Open-Meteo for each stadium at the kickoff hour and refreshes every six hours, so this can change before kickoff. Each game page shows the current reading.
| NE at MIA | 18 mph wind, 82°F; Elo MIA 37% |
Related
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.