ResultsFriday, Sep 18, 4:37 AM
Week 2: The System +14.1, the closing line +13.4, Elo +12.0
Every forecaster scored as a player on its closing numbers. The System beat the market this week.
Scoring is the game's own: 25 minus the square of the miss over 100, per game. A forecaster that says 70% and is right earns 16; wrong, it loses 24. Over a 16-game week the spread between the best and worst forecaster is usually 20 to 40 points, and it is mostly variance; the season total is what separates them.
Over 24 replayed seasons the closing line averaged 977 points a season, The System 980, Elo 890. One week says little; the season scoreboard on the leaderboard is the running answer.
| Bold (baba) | +18.2 on 1 |
| The blend | +14.1 on 1 |
| The System | +14.1 on 1 |
| Closing spread | +13.4 on 1 |
| Pure market (baba) | +13.4 on 1 |
| Cautious (baba) | +13.4 on 1 |
| Elo (the model) | +12.0 on 1 |
| Pure Elo (baba) | +12.0 on 1 |
| Sportsbooks | +0.0 on 0 |
| Kalshi | +0.0 on 0 |
| Polymarket | +0.0 on 0 |
| The crowd | +0.0 on 0 |
| The sharp crowd | +0.0 on 0 |
| The bot crowd | +0.0 on 0 |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.