Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth. Read more →
← Back to Week 10 picks · Back to Week 10 predictions
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
Game data updated 3 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 10, 2026 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Sunday, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET · closed
Miami Dolphins1–6 · Elo 1369 · Malik Willis (+90 Elo)
Indianapolis Colts
2–6 · Elo 1434 · Daniel Jones · Home
Make your pick
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
MIAIND
Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | IND | MIA | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | IND 53% | 53% | 47% | IND 1434 vs MIA 1369, implied spread IND −0.7 |
| The blend | IND 53% | 53% | 47% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
No market line yet.
Details
- Rest: IND 7 days, MIA 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. IND: Daniel Jones (-6 Elo). MIA: Malik Willis (+90 Elo). Expected starters from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied, refreshed every three hours.
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
Injury report
ESPN's report, refreshed every three hours. Out and doubtful players are treated as unavailable; questionable players usually play. Only the quarterback feeds Elo directly; the rest is in the market's number.
| Team | Player | Pos | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Kadyn Proctor | OT | Out | Concussion · out |
| MIA | Malik Herring | DE | Questionable | Undisclosed · Herring (neck) is questionable to return to Sunday's contest against New England. |
| IND | Anthony Gould | WR | Out | Concussion · out |
| IND | Bryce Boettcher | LB | Out | Groin · out |
| IND | Justin Walley | CB | Out | Knee · out |
On the Wire
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.