Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
Game data updated 3 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 10, 2026 · Sunday, Nov 15, 6:00 PM · closed
Miami Dolphins0–1 · Elo 1440 · Malik Willis (+90)
Indianapolis Colts
0–1 · Elo 1472 · Daniel Jones · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | IND | MIA | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | MIA 52% | 48% | 52% | IND 1472 vs MIA 1440, implied spread IND +0.6 |
| Closing spread | IND 69% | 69% | 31% | IND -6.5 |
| The blend | IND 63% | 63% | 37% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Indianapolis Colts over the Dolphins: Elo 48%, market 69%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo.
Details
- Rest: IND 7 days, MIA 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: IND -6 (Daniel Jones), MIA +90 (Malik Willis). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.