Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals, Week 8. The Bengals won 43 to 36; the game turned on (Shotgun) C.Ward sacked at TEN 42 for -13 yards (D.Lawrence).. Attendance 66,209. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers. Read more →
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Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals
Final, recorded Sun 4:45 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:57 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 8, 2026 · Paycor Stadium · Sunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors · wind 2 mph, 73°F
Tennessee Titans1–7 · Elo 1326 · Cam Ward (+19 Elo)
36–43
Cincinnati Bengals
5–2 · Elo 1568 · Joe Burrow (+17 Elo) · Home
Final: TEN 36, CIN 43. Elo moved CIN 1561 → 1568 and TEN 1332 → 1326.
Lock of the week. CIN · Elo gives the Cincinnati Bengals 79% at home against the Tennessee Titans and the market says 77%. No game this week has both more sure of the same team. Burrow is worth +17 Elo to the Bengals; Ward is worth +19 Elo to the Titans. Hit.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | CIN | TEN | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | CIN 83% | 83% | 17% | +22.1 | CIN 1561 vs TEN 1332, implied spread CIN −11.0 |
| Closing spread | CIN 84% | 84% | 16% | +22.4 | CIN -13.5 |
| Sportsbooks | CIN 86% | 86% | 14% | +23.0 | |
| Kalshi | CIN 89% | 89% | 12% | +23.8 | |
| Polymarket | CIN 89% | 89% | 12% | +23.8 | |
| The blend | CIN 86% | 86% | 14% | +23.0 | |
| The crowd (3) | CIN 83% | 83% | 17% | +22.1 | |
| The sharp crowd | CIN 83% | 83% | 17% | +22.1 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Clear favorite, mild disagreement
Both favor the same team by 60% or more, but they differ by 4 to 10 points. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way). The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average.
Cincinnati Bengals over the Titans: Elo 83%, market 88%. Clear favorite, take the average. Burrow is worth 17 Elo; Ward is worth 19 Elo.
Details
- Importance 34 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 13.
- Rest: CIN 7 days, TEN 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. CIN: Joe Burrow (+17 Elo). TEN: Cam Ward (+19 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 2 mph, 73°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread CIN -13, total 46. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $1.0M traded, $942k open · Polymarket: $233k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Bengals 43, Titans 36: back and forth. Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals, Week 8. The Bengals won 43 to 36; the game turned on (Shotgun) C.Ward sacked at TEN 42 for -13 yards (D.Lawrence).. Attendance 66,209. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
The expected result: the market had the Bengals at 88%, Elo at 83%, The System at 88%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+23.6).
This was the lock (Cincinnati Bengals) this week: it hit.
- Elo: Bengals 83%, +22.1
- The market: Bengals 88%, +23.6
- The System: Bengals 88%, +23.6
- The crowd: Bengals 83%, +22.1
- The bot crowd: Bengals 87%, +23.3
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) C.Ward sacked at TEN 42 for -13 yards (D.Lawrence). in the fourth quarter at 0:32, which moved the home side's chances from 32% to 59%.
- Largest lead: Titans by 13. Lead changes: 5.
- Bengals's live win probability ranged from 17% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 3:46: Wan'Dale Robinson 15 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Cam Ward Pass to Gunnar Helm for Two-Point Conversion) (TEN 36, CIN 29)
- Q4 1:17: Tee Higgins 18 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick) (TEN 36, CIN 36)
- Q5 7:00: Joe Burrow 9 Yd Rush (Evan McPherson Kick) (TEN 36, CIN 43)
The box score
The Bengals won the yards, 510 to 440.
- Total yards: TEN 440, CIN 510
- Yards per play: TEN 6.3, CIN 7.3
- Third downs: TEN 5-12, CIN 7-10
- Turnovers: TEN 2, CIN 4
- Penalties: TEN 10-73, CIN 8-67
- Possession: TEN 32:11, CIN 32:12
- Red zone: TEN 3-4, CIN 5-6
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Bengals +6 to 1568, Titans -6 to 1326. The quarterback adjustment going in was CIN +17, TEN +19.
- Cam Ward (TEN): 26/40, 304 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 104.6
- Joe Burrow (CIN): 38/48, 462 yds, 5 TD, 3 INT, QBR 115.5
- Rushing: Chase Brown (CIN), 12 CAR, 55 YDS
- Receiving: Tee Higgins (CIN), 10 REC, 155 YDS, 2 TD
- Rushing: Tony Pollard (TEN), 21 CAR, 117 YDS, 2 TD
- Receiving: Gunnar Helm (TEN), 5 REC, 76 YDS
The players
3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +22.1 and 3 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged +23.1 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Homer, Bengals 89%, +23.8.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 24, 2 PM ET; last change Sun 12:57 PM ET. The consensus has moved toward CIN by 5 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (CIN) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 84% | 89% | +5 | 61 |
| Polymarket | 83% | 89% | +6 | 50 |
| Sportsbooks | 83% | 86% | +3 | 20 |
Consensus over time