Final: 49ers 27, Rams 7: the upset
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams, Week 1. The 49ers won 27 to 7 as a 60% underdog by the market; the game turned on B.Purdy pass deep middle to D.Robinson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is G. Attendance 100,021. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
An upset: the market had the 49ers at 40%, Elo at 46%, The System at 41%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (-4.2).
The swing: B.Purdy pass deep middle to D.Robinson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman. in the second quarter at 4:28, which moved the home side's chances from 64% to 50%.
The 49ers won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
Elo: Rams -33 to 1545, 49ers +33 to 1584.
| Against the forecasts | Elo: 49ers 46%, -4.2 |
| Against the forecasts | The market: 49ers 40%, -11.0 |
| Against the forecasts | The System: 49ers 41%, -9.8 |
| How it happened | Largest lead: 49ers by 20. Lead changes: 2. |
| How it happened | 49ers's live win probability ranged from 24% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model). |
| How it happened | Q3 11:03: Mike Evans 2 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick) (SF 17, LAR 7) |
| How it happened | Q4 12:57: Deebo Samuel Sr. 15 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick) (SF 24, LAR 7) |
| The box score | Total yards: SF 379, LAR 290 |
| The box score | Yards per play: SF 5.9, LAR 5.1 |
| The box score | Third downs: SF 7-12, LAR 2-9 |
| The box score | Turnovers: SF 1, LAR 2 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Brock Purdy (SF): 25/34, 205 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, QBR 78.3 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Matthew Stafford (LAR): 15/25, 155 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, QBR 35.8 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Rushing: Blake Corum (LAR), 10 CAR, 54 YDS |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.