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San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

Final, recorded Fri 12:37 AM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open

Week 1, 2026 · Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne · Thursday, Sep 10, 8:35 PM ET · neutral site · dome

San Francisco 49ers
6–1 · Elo 1619 · Brock Purdy
Elo: LAR 54%Spread: LAR 60%
27–7
Los Angeles Rams
4–4 · Elo 1575 · Matthew Stafford · Home
Final: SF 27, LAR 7. Elo moved LAR 1578 → 1545 and SF 1551 → 1584.

Your pick

No pick made — counts as 0 points.

What the forecasters say

ForecasterFavorsLARSFPoints earnedNote
EloLAR 54%54%46%-4.2LAR 1578 vs SF 1551, implied spread LAR −1.1
Closing spreadLAR 60%60%40%-11.0LAR -3.5
The blendLAR 59%59%41%-9.8

The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.

The spot: Everything else

Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.

Los Angeles Rams over the 49ers: Elo 54%, market 60%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine.

Details

The post-game report

49ers 27, Rams 7: the upset. San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams, Week 1. The 49ers won 27 to 7 as a 60% underdog by the market; the game turned on B.Purdy pass deep middle to D.Robinson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is G. Attendance 100,021. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.

Against the forecasts

An upset: the market had the 49ers at 40%, Elo at 46%, The System at 41%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (-4.2).

  • Elo: 49ers 46%, -4.2
  • The market: 49ers 40%, -11.0
  • The System: 49ers 41%, -9.8

How it happened

The swing: B.Purdy pass deep middle to D.Robinson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman. in the second quarter at 4:28, which moved the home side's chances from 64% to 50%.

  • Largest lead: 49ers by 20. Lead changes: 2.
  • 49ers's live win probability ranged from 24% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
  • Q3 11:03: Mike Evans 2 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick) (SF 17, LAR 7)
  • Q4 12:57: Deebo Samuel Sr. 15 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick) (SF 24, LAR 7)
  • Q4 9:43: Eddy Pineiro 56 Yd Field Goal (SF 27, LAR 7)

The box score

The 49ers won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.

  • Total yards: SF 379, LAR 290
  • Yards per play: SF 5.9, LAR 5.1
  • Third downs: SF 7-12, LAR 2-9
  • Turnovers: SF 1, LAR 2
  • Penalties: SF 2-21, LAR 4-43
  • Possession: SF 33:50, LAR 26:10
  • Red zone: SF 2-3, LAR 1-3

Quarterbacks and Elo

Elo: Rams -33 to 1545, 49ers +33 to 1584.

Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.

On the Wire

rest

Rest this week: 6 teams off a bye, 1 on short rest

Mon 10 PM ET

Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →

lines

Line moves for Week 9: money toward the Jaguars, Giants, Rams and 3 more

Mon 8 AM ET

Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →

Line movement

No market prices were recorded before this game.

All of Week 1LAR historySF history