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FinalSunday, Sep 20, 5:17 PM ET

Final: Bears 59, Panthers 37

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers, Week 1. The Bears won 59 to 37; the game turned on (Shotgun) C.Williams scrambles left end for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Santos extra point is G. Attendance 72,597. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.

A close call on paper: the market had the Bears at 59%, Elo at 52%, The System at 57%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+8.2).

The swing: (Shotgun) C.Williams scrambles left end for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-B.Gardner, Holder-T.Taylor. in the second quarter at 0:22, which moved the home side's chances from 35% to 23%.

The Bears won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.

Elo: Panthers -30 to 1431, Bears +30 to 1557.

Against the forecastsElo: Bears 52%, +2.0
Against the forecastsThe market: Bears 59%, +8.2
Against the forecastsThe System: Bears 57%, +6.5
How it happenedLargest lead: Bears by 22. Lead changes: 1.
How it happenedBears's live win probability ranged from 40% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
How it happenedQ4 6:27: Jahdae Walker 1 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick) (CHI 52, CAR 31)
How it happenedQ4 4:00: Jalen Coker 8 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald PAT blocked) (CHI 52, CAR 37)
The box scoreTotal yards: CHI 552, CAR 478
The box scoreYards per play: CHI 7.9, CAR 7.7
The box scoreThird downs: CHI 10-14, CAR 4-9
The box scoreTurnovers: CHI 1, CAR 3
Quarterbacks and EloCaleb Williams (CHI): 21/29, 269 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 90.3
Quarterbacks and EloBryce Young (CAR): 23/37, 361 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, QBR 64.1
Quarterbacks and EloRushing: Chuba Hubbard (CAR), 10 CAR, 49 YDS, 1 TD

Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.