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Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers

Final, recorded Fri 12:37 AM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open

Week 1, 2026 · Bank of America Stadium · Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors

Chicago Bears
5–2 · Elo 1604 · Caleb Williams
Elo: CHI 52%Spread: CHI 59%
59–37
Carolina Panthers
3–4 · Elo 1446 · Bryce Young · Home
Final: CHI 59, CAR 37. Elo moved CAR 1461 → 1431 and CHI 1527 → 1557.

Your pick

No pick made — counts as 0 points.

What the forecasters say

ForecasterFavorsCARCHIPoints earnedNote
EloCHI 52%48%52%+2.0CAR 1461 vs CHI 1527, implied spread CAR +0.4
Closing spreadCHI 59%41%59%+8.2CAR +3
The blendCHI 57%43%57%+6.5

The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.

The spot: Everything else

Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.

Chicago Bears over the Panthers: Elo 52%, market 59%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine.

Details

The post-game report

Bears 59, Panthers 37. Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers, Week 1. The Bears won 59 to 37; the game turned on (Shotgun) C.Williams scrambles left end for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Santos extra point is G. Attendance 72,597. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.

Against the forecasts

A close call on paper: the market had the Bears at 59%, Elo at 52%, The System at 57%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+8.2).

  • Elo: Bears 52%, +2.0
  • The market: Bears 59%, +8.2
  • The System: Bears 57%, +6.5

How it happened

The swing: (Shotgun) C.Williams scrambles left end for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-B.Gardner, Holder-T.Taylor. in the second quarter at 0:22, which moved the home side's chances from 35% to 23%.

  • Largest lead: Bears by 22. Lead changes: 1.
  • Bears's live win probability ranged from 40% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
  • Q4 6:27: Jahdae Walker 1 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick) (CHI 52, CAR 31)
  • Q4 4:00: Jalen Coker 8 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald PAT blocked) (CHI 52, CAR 37)
  • Q4 3:40: D'Andre Swift 28 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick) (CHI 59, CAR 37)

The box score

The Bears won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.

  • Total yards: CHI 552, CAR 478
  • Yards per play: CHI 7.9, CAR 7.7
  • Third downs: CHI 10-14, CAR 4-9
  • Turnovers: CHI 1, CAR 3
  • Penalties: CHI 12-57, CAR 11-84
  • Possession: CHI 34:03, CAR 25:57
  • Red zone: CHI 4-4, CAR 4-4

Quarterbacks and Elo

Elo: Panthers -30 to 1431, Bears +30 to 1557.

Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.

On the Wire

rest

Rest this week: 6 teams off a bye, 1 on short rest

Mon 10 PM ET

Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →

lines

Line moves for Week 9: money toward the Jaguars, Giants, Rams and 3 more

Mon 8 AM ET

Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →

Line movement

No market prices were recorded before this game.

All of Week 1CAR historyCHI history