Final: Bengals 33, Buccaneers 27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals, Week 1. The Bengals won 33 to 27; the game turned on (No Huddle) B.Mayfield sacked at TB 25 for -8 yards (sack split by M.Murphy and B.Carter).. Attendance 66,625. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
A close call on paper: the market had the Bengals at 60%, Elo at 61%, The System at 62%. Best forecaster on this game: The System (+10.6).
The swing: (No Huddle) B.Mayfield sacked at TB 25 for -8 yards (sack split by M.Murphy and B.Carter). FUMBLES (M.Murphy) [B.Carter], touched at TB 26, RECOVERED by CIN-D.Knight at TB 27. D.Knight for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.McPherson extra point is GOOD, Center-W.Wagner, Holder-R.Rehkow. in the first quarter at 6:18, which moved the home side's chances from 53% to 69%.
The Bengals won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
Elo: Bengals +15 to 1505, Buccaneers -15 to 1466. The quarterback adjustment going in was CIN +18, TB +0.
| Against the forecasts | Elo: Bengals 61%, +9.8 |
| Against the forecasts | The market: Bengals 60%, +9.0 |
| Against the forecasts | The System: Bengals 62%, +10.6 |
| How it happened | Largest lead: Bengals by 18. Lead changes: 1. |
| How it happened | Bengals's live win probability ranged from 50% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model). |
| How it happened | Q4 14:04: Evan McPherson 58 Yd Field Goal (TB 20, CIN 30) |
| How it happened | Q4 5:19: Evan McPherson 32 Yd Field Goal (TB 20, CIN 33) |
| The box score | Total yards: TB 282, CIN 351 |
| The box score | Yards per play: TB 5.4, CIN 5.6 |
| The box score | Third downs: TB 5-10, CIN 8-14 |
| The box score | Turnovers: TB 4, CIN 1 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Baker Mayfield (TB): 23/28, 216 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, QBR 36.1 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Joe Burrow (CIN): 25/35, 254 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 74.4 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Rushing: Chase Brown (CIN), 16 CAR, 56 YDS, 1 TD |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.