Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals
Final, recorded Fri 12:37 AM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 1, 2026 · Paycor Stadium · Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors
Tampa Bay Buccaneers3–5 · Elo 1523 · Baker Mayfield
27–33
Cincinnati Bengals
5–2 · Elo 1568 · Joe Burrow (+18 Elo) · Home
Final: TB 27, CIN 33. Elo moved CIN 1490 → 1505 and TB 1481 → 1466.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | CIN | TB | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | CIN 61% | 61% | 39% | +9.8 | CIN 1490 vs TB 1481, implied spread CIN −3.0 |
| Closing spread | CIN 60% | 60% | 40% | +9.0 | CIN -3.5 |
| The blend | CIN 62% | 62% | 38% | +10.6 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Cincinnati Bengals over the Buccaneers: Elo 61%, market 60%. Tight agreement: go above both. Burrow is worth 18 Elo.
Details
- Rest: CIN 7 days, TB 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. CIN: Joe Burrow (+18 Elo). TB: Baker Mayfield (0 Elo).
- Weather. No forecast was recorded for this game.
The post-game report
Bengals 33, Buccaneers 27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals, Week 1. The Bengals won 33 to 27; the game turned on (No Huddle) B.Mayfield sacked at TB 25 for -8 yards (sack split by M.Murphy and B.Carter).. Attendance 66,625. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Bengals at 60%, Elo at 61%, The System at 62%. Best forecaster on this game: The System (+10.6).
- Elo: Bengals 61%, +9.8
- The market: Bengals 60%, +9.0
- The System: Bengals 62%, +10.6
How it happened
The swing: (No Huddle) B.Mayfield sacked at TB 25 for -8 yards (sack split by M.Murphy and B.Carter). FUMBLES (M.Murphy) [B.Carter], touched at TB 26, RECOVERED by CIN-D.Knight at TB 27. D.Knight for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.McPherson extra point is GOOD, Center-W.Wagner, Holder-R.Rehkow. in the first quarter at 6:18, which moved the home side's chances from 53% to 69%.
- Largest lead: Bengals by 18. Lead changes: 1.
- Bengals's live win probability ranged from 50% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 14:04: Evan McPherson 58 Yd Field Goal (TB 20, CIN 30)
- Q4 5:19: Evan McPherson 32 Yd Field Goal (TB 20, CIN 33)
- Q4 3:19: Baker Mayfield 9 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick) (TB 27, CIN 33)
The box score
The Bengals won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: TB 282, CIN 351
- Yards per play: TB 5.4, CIN 5.6
- Third downs: TB 5-10, CIN 8-14
- Turnovers: TB 4, CIN 1
- Penalties: TB 8-39, CIN 7-47
- Possession: TB 28:35, CIN 31:25
- Red zone: TB 2-4, CIN 2-5
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Bengals +15 to 1505, Buccaneers -15 to 1466. The quarterback adjustment going in was CIN +18, TB +0.
- Baker Mayfield (TB): 23/28, 216 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, QBR 36.1
- Joe Burrow (CIN): 25/35, 254 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 74.4
- Rushing: Chase Brown (CIN), 16 CAR, 56 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Mike Gesicki (CIN), 5 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
- Rushing: Bucky Irving (TB), 8 CAR, 45 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Emeka Egbuka (TB), 5 REC, 63 YDS
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
No market prices were recorded before this game.