Final: Bills 33, Raiders 30
From the archive. This item is no longer current; the numbers below are as they stood when it was written.
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders, Week 6. The Bills won 33 to 30; the game turned on (Shotgun) K.Cousins pass short right to T.Tucker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extra poin. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
The expected result: the market had the Bills at 68%, Elo at 58%, The System at 65%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+14.8).
The swing: (Shotgun) K.Cousins pass short right to T.Tucker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole. in the fourth quarter at 8:07, which moved the home side's chances from 22% to 39%.
The Raiders outgained the Bills (378 to 345 yards) and lost on turnovers (1 to 0). The better team on the day lost.
Elo: Raiders -11 to 1424, Bills +11 to 1628. The quarterback adjustment going in was LV +70, BUF -9.
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +9.0 and 2 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged +12.5 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Marketeer, Bills 68%, +14.8.
| Against the forecasts | Elo: Bills 58%, +7.4 |
| Against the forecasts | The market: Bills 68%, +14.8 |
| Against the forecasts | The System: Bills 65%, +12.8 |
| Against the forecasts | The bot crowd: Bills 65%, +12.8 |
| How it happened | Largest lead: Bills by 10. Lead changes: 2. |
| How it happened | Bills's live win probability ranged from 61% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model). |
| How it happened | Q4 4:43: James Cook III 3 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick) (BUF 30, LV 23) |
| How it happened | Q4 1:56: Tyler Bass 38 Yd Field Goal (BUF 33, LV 23) |
| The box score | Total yards: BUF 345, LV 378 |
| The box score | Yards per play: BUF 5.4, LV 6.2 |
| The box score | Third downs: BUF 4-11, LV 7-12 |
| The box score | Turnovers: BUF 0, LV 1 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Josh Allen (BUF): 23/33, 255 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 112.6 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Kirk Cousins (LV): 23/41, 313 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, QBR 86.7 |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.