Jaguars at Ravens $211k, Raiders at 49ers $59k, Packers at Patriots $35k traded on Kalshi and Polymarket. The exchanges and the books agree within four points everywhere. Read more →
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Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders
Final, recorded Sun 7:34 PM ET · markets priced Sun 4:17 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 6, 2026 · Allegiant Stadium · Sunday, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET · dome
Buffalo Bills6–1 · Elo 1646 · Josh Allen
33–30
Las Vegas Raiders
4–4 · Elo 1414 · Kirk Cousins (+70 Elo) · Home
Final: BUF 33, LV 30. Elo moved LV 1436 → 1424 and BUF 1617 → 1628.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | LV | BUF | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | BUF 58% | 42% | 58% | +7.4 | LV 1436 vs BUF 1617, implied spread LV +2.2 |
| Closing spread | BUF 66% | 34% | 66% | +13.4 | LV +5.5 |
| Sportsbooks | BUF 68% | 32% | 68% | +14.8 | |
| Kalshi | BUF 68% | 33% | 68% | +14.1 | |
| Polymarket | BUF 69% | 32% | 69% | +14.8 | |
| The blend | BUF 65% | 35% | 65% | +12.8 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Buffalo Bills over the Raiders: Elo 58%, market 68%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Cousins is worth 70 Elo.
Details
- Importance 46 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 40.
- Rest: LV 7 days, BUF 6 days.
- Quarterbacks. LV: Kirk Cousins (+70 Elo). BUF: Josh Allen (-9 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
- The line. Spread LV +5, total 53.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $1.4M traded, $1.3M open · Polymarket: $102k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Bills 33, Raiders 30. Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders, Week 6. The Bills won 33 to 30; the game turned on (Shotgun) K.Cousins pass short right to T.Tucker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extra poin. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
The expected result: the market had the Bills at 68%, Elo at 58%, The System at 65%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+14.8).
- Elo: Bills 58%, +7.4
- The market: Bills 68%, +14.8
- The System: Bills 65%, +12.8
- The bot crowd: Bills 65%, +12.8
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) K.Cousins pass short right to T.Tucker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole. in the fourth quarter at 8:07, which moved the home side's chances from 22% to 39%.
- Largest lead: Bills by 10. Lead changes: 2.
- Bills's live win probability ranged from 61% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 4:43: James Cook III 3 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick) (BUF 30, LV 23)
- Q4 1:56: Tyler Bass 38 Yd Field Goal (BUF 33, LV 23)
- Q4 1:32: Tre Tucker 44 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick) (BUF 33, LV 30)
The box score
The Raiders outgained the Bills (378 to 345 yards) and lost on turnovers (1 to 0). The better team on the day lost.
- Total yards: BUF 345, LV 378
- Yards per play: BUF 5.4, LV 6.2
- Third downs: BUF 4-11, LV 7-12
- Turnovers: BUF 0, LV 1
- Penalties: BUF 8-77, LV 7-62
- Possession: BUF 31:48, LV 28:12
- Red zone: BUF 3-5, LV 2-5
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Raiders -11 to 1424, Bills +11 to 1628. The quarterback adjustment going in was LV +70, BUF -9.
- Josh Allen (BUF): 23/33, 255 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 112.6
- Kirk Cousins (LV): 23/41, 313 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, QBR 86.7
- Rushing: Mike Washington Jr. (LV), 9 CAR, 43 YDS
- Receiving: Tre Tucker (LV), 5 REC, 97 YDS, 2 TD
- Rushing: James Cook III (BUF), 22 CAR, 95 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Keon Coleman (BUF), 4 REC, 59 YDS, 1 TD
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +9.0 and 2 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged +12.5 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Marketeer, Bills 68%, +14.8.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 10, 4 PM ET; last change Sun 4:17 PM ET. The consensus has moved toward LV by 1 point since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (LV) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 32% | 33% | +1 | 44 |
| Polymarket | 31% | 32% | +1 | 35 |
| Sportsbooks | 33% | 32% | -1 | 19 |
Consensus over time