Final: Bills 36, Texans 31: back and forth
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans, Week 1. The Bills won 36 to 31; the game turned on (Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep middle to J.Palmer for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSI. Attendance 71,008. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
A close call on paper: the market had the Bills at 54%, Elo at 41%, The System at 51%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+3.8).
The swing: (Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep middle to J.Palmer for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. J.Allen pass to K.Coleman is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. in the fourth quarter at 1:36, which moved the home side's chances from 50% to 10%.
The Bills won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
Elo: Texans -22 to 1556, Bills +22 to 1595. The quarterback adjustment going in was HOU +1, BUF -11.
| Against the forecasts | Elo: Bills 41%, -9.8 |
| Against the forecasts | The market: Bills 54%, +3.8 |
| Against the forecasts | The System: Bills 51%, +1.0 |
| How it happened | Largest lead: Bills by 10. Lead changes: 8. |
| How it happened | Bills's live win probability ranged from 32% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model). |
| How it happened | Q4 10:31: Tyler Bass 33 Yd Field Goal (BUF 30, HOU 28) |
| How it happened | Q4 6:44: Ka'imi Fairbairn 58 Yd Field Goal (BUF 30, HOU 31) |
| The box score | Total yards: BUF 409, HOU 381 |
| The box score | Yards per play: BUF 7.9, HOU 5.2 |
| The box score | Third downs: BUF 3-9, HOU 7-16 |
| The box score | Turnovers: BUF 0, HOU 2 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Josh Allen (BUF): 20/29, 334 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 84.5 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | C.J. Stroud (HOU): 26/38, 274 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 68.3 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Rushing: David Montgomery (HOU), 20 CAR, 60 YDS, 2 TD |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.