The Report · data-driven NFL insights, delivered every morning

← Back to Week 1 picks · Back to Week 1 predictions

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

Final, recorded Fri 12:37 AM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open

Week 1, 2026 · Reliant Stadium · Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · closed

Buffalo Bills
6–1 · Elo 1646 · Josh Allen (−11 Elo)
Elo: HOU 59%Spread: BUF 54%
36–31
Houston Texans
2–5 · Elo 1498 · C.J. Stroud · Home
Final: BUF 36, HOU 31. Elo moved HOU 1578 → 1556 and BUF 1573 → 1595.

Your pick

No pick made — counts as 0 points.

What the forecasters say

ForecasterFavorsHOUBUFPoints earnedNote
EloHOU 59%59%41%-9.8HOU 1578 vs BUF 1573, implied spread HOU −2.6
Closing spreadBUF 54%46%54%+3.8HOU +1.5
The blendBUF 51%49%51%+1.0

The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.

The spot: Big disagreement

Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.

Buffalo Bills over the Texans: Elo 41%, market 54%. Big disagreement: trust the market number.

Details

The post-game report

Bills 36, Texans 31: back and forth. Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans, Week 1. The Bills won 36 to 31; the game turned on (Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep middle to J.Palmer for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSI. Attendance 71,008. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.

Against the forecasts

A close call on paper: the market had the Bills at 54%, Elo at 41%, The System at 51%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+3.8).

  • Elo: Bills 41%, -9.8
  • The market: Bills 54%, +3.8
  • The System: Bills 51%, +1.0

How it happened

The swing: (Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep middle to J.Palmer for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. J.Allen pass to K.Coleman is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. in the fourth quarter at 1:36, which moved the home side's chances from 50% to 10%.

  • Largest lead: Bills by 10. Lead changes: 8.
  • Bills's live win probability ranged from 32% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
  • Q4 10:31: Tyler Bass 33 Yd Field Goal (BUF 30, HOU 28)
  • Q4 6:44: Ka'imi Fairbairn 58 Yd Field Goal (BUF 30, HOU 31)
  • Q4 1:36: Joshua Palmer 34 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) (BUF 36, HOU 31)

The box score

The Bills won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.

  • Total yards: BUF 409, HOU 381
  • Yards per play: BUF 7.9, HOU 5.2
  • Third downs: BUF 3-9, HOU 7-16
  • Turnovers: BUF 0, HOU 2
  • Penalties: BUF 10-85, HOU 7-106
  • Possession: BUF 23:43, HOU 36:17
  • Red zone: BUF 1-3, HOU 4-5

Quarterbacks and Elo

Elo: Texans -22 to 1556, Bills +22 to 1595. The quarterback adjustment going in was HOU +1, BUF -11.

Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.

On the Wire

rest

Rest this week: 6 teams off a bye, 1 on short rest

Mon 10 PM ET

Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →

Line movement

No market prices were recorded before this game.

All of Week 1HOU historyBUF history