Final: Bills 41, Lions 31
From the archive. This item is no longer current; the numbers below are as they stood when it was written.
Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills, Week 2. The Bills won 41 to 31; the game turned on (Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep middle to J.Palmer for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [S.Gill-Howard]. T.. Attendance 60,644. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
The expected result: the market had the Bills at 66%, Elo at 64%, The System at 67%. Best forecaster on this game: The System (+14.1).
The swing: (Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep middle to J.Palmer for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [S.Gill-Howard]. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman. in the first quarter at 3:42, which moved the home side's chances from 82% to 90%.
The Bills won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
Elo: Bills +17 to 1612, Lions -17 to 1519. The quarterback adjustment going in was BUF -10, DET +0.
| Against the forecasts | Elo: Bills 64%, +12.0 |
| Against the forecasts | The market: Bills 66%, +13.4 |
| Against the forecasts | The System: Bills 67%, +14.1 |
| How it happened | Largest lead: Bills by 21. Lead changes: 0. |
| How it happened | Bills's live win probability ranged from 64% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model). |
| How it happened | Q4 10:53: Sam LaPorta 1 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick) (DET 24, BUF 34) |
| How it happened | Q4 2:50: James Cook III 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick) (DET 24, BUF 41) |
| The box score | Total yards: DET 355, BUF 446 |
| The box score | Yards per play: DET 5.7, BUF 6.5 |
| The box score | Third downs: DET 4-11, BUF 9-12 |
| The box score | Turnovers: DET 0, BUF 0 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Jared Goff (DET): 26/38, 327 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT, QBR 71.3 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Josh Allen (BUF): 20/31, 248 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, QBR 91.2 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Rushing: James Cook III (BUF), 21 CAR, 135 YDS, 1 TD |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.