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Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills

Final, recorded Fri 12:37 AM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open

Week 2, 2026 · Highmark Stadium · Thursday, Sep 17, 8:15 PM ET · outdoors

Detroit Lions
5–2 · Elo 1569 · Jared Goff
Elo: BUF 64%Spread: BUF 66%
31–41
Buffalo Bills
6–1 · Elo 1646 · Josh Allen (−10 Elo) · Home
Final: DET 31, BUF 41. Elo moved BUF 1595 → 1612 and DET 1535 → 1519.

Your pick

No pick made — counts as 0 points.

What the forecasters say

ForecasterFavorsBUFDETPoints earnedNote
EloBUF 64%64%36%+12.0BUF 1595 vs DET 1535, implied spread BUF −3.9
Closing spreadBUF 66%66%34%+13.4BUF -5.5
The blendBUF 67%67%33%+14.1

The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.

The spot: Tight agreement

Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.

Buffalo Bills over the Lions: Elo 64%, market 66%. Tight agreement: go above both.

Details

The post-game report

Bills 41, Lions 31. Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills, Week 2. The Bills won 41 to 31; the game turned on (Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep middle to J.Palmer for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [S.Gill-Howard]. T.. Attendance 60,644. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.

Against the forecasts

The expected result: the market had the Bills at 66%, Elo at 64%, The System at 67%. Best forecaster on this game: The System (+14.1).

  • Elo: Bills 64%, +12.0
  • The market: Bills 66%, +13.4
  • The System: Bills 67%, +14.1

How it happened

The swing: (Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep middle to J.Palmer for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [S.Gill-Howard]. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman. in the first quarter at 3:42, which moved the home side's chances from 82% to 90%.

  • Largest lead: Bills by 21. Lead changes: 0.
  • Bills's live win probability ranged from 64% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
  • Q4 10:53: Sam LaPorta 1 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick) (DET 24, BUF 34)
  • Q4 2:50: James Cook III 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick) (DET 24, BUF 41)
  • Q4 1:42: Amon-Ra St. Brown 27 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick) (DET 31, BUF 41)

The box score

The Bills won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.

  • Total yards: DET 355, BUF 446
  • Yards per play: DET 5.7, BUF 6.5
  • Third downs: DET 4-11, BUF 9-12
  • Turnovers: DET 0, BUF 0
  • Penalties: DET 10-58, BUF 5-46
  • Possession: DET 26:15, BUF 33:45
  • Red zone: DET 3-4, BUF 5-5

Quarterbacks and Elo

Elo: Bills +17 to 1612, Lions -17 to 1519. The quarterback adjustment going in was BUF -10, DET +0.

Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.

On the Wire

weather

Weather report for Week 9: 2 games to watch, 1 in wind, 1 in heat

Mon 10 PM ET

Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth. Read more →

lines

Line moves for Week 9: money toward the Jaguars, Giants, Rams and 3 more

Mon 8 AM ET

Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →

Line movement

No market prices were recorded before this game.

All of Week 2BUF historyDET history