Final: Broncos 28, Chiefs 24
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos, Week 8. The Broncos won 28 to 24; the game turned on (Shotgun) PENALTY on KC-J.Moore, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 1 - No Play.. Attendance 76,831. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
A close call on paper: the market had the Broncos at 50%, Elo at 57%, The System at 52%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (+6.5).
The swing: (Shotgun) PENALTY on KC-J.Moore, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 1 - No Play. in the fourth quarter at 0:04, which moved the home side's chances from 30% to 60%.
The Chiefs outgained the Broncos, 399 to 294; the difference was elsewhere.
Elo: Broncos +13 to 1617, Chiefs -13 to 1539. The quarterback adjustment going in was DEN -1, KC +46.
3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -3.1 and 0 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged +0.9 and 8 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Homer, Broncos 54%, +3.8.
| Against the forecasts | Elo: Broncos 57%, +6.5 |
| Against the forecasts | The market: Broncos 50%, +0.0 |
| Against the forecasts | The System: Broncos 52%, +2.0 |
| Against the forecasts | The crowd: Broncos 47%, -3.1 |
| How it happened | Largest lead: Chiefs by 11. Lead changes: 2. |
| How it happened | Broncos's live win probability ranged from 8% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model). |
| How it happened | Q3 1:38: Noah Gray 4 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick) (KC 24, DEN 13) |
| How it happened | Q4 8:55: Nate Adkins 2 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Bo Nix Pass to Jaylen Waddle for Two-Point Conversion) (KC 24, DEN 21) |
| The box score | Total yards: KC 399, DEN 294 |
| The box score | Yards per play: KC 6.0, DEN 5.2 |
| The box score | Third downs: KC 6-14, DEN 2-11 |
| The box score | Turnovers: KC 0, DEN 0 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Patrick Mahomes (KC): 30/41, 321 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, QBR 120.1 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Bo Nix (DEN): 20/32, 222 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 103.9 |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.