Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Game data updated 2 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 8, 2026 · Sunday, Nov 1, 9:25 PM · outdoors
Kansas City Chiefs1–0 · Elo 1518 · Patrick Mahomes (+46)
Denver Broncos
0–1 · Elo 1547 · Bo Nix · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | DEN | KC | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | DEN 54% | 54% | 46% | DEN 1547 vs KC 1518, implied spread DEN −1.2 |
| Closing spread | DEN 54% | 54% | 46% | DEN -1.5 |
| The blend | DEN 54% | 54% | 46% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Coin flips
Every model has the game between 45% and 55%. Replays: these resolved 50/50, and confident picks on them cost the most points per game. Leave the slider near 50. A wrong 65% costs more than a right one earns.
Denver Broncos over the Chiefs: Elo 54%, market 54%. Coin flip: stay near 50. Mahomes is worth 46 Elo.
Details
- Rest: DEN 7 days, KC 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: DEN -1 (Bo Nix), KC +46 (Patrick Mahomes). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.