Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
← Back to Week 8 picks · Back to Week 8 predictions
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Final, recorded Sun 7:42 PM ET · markets priced Sun 4:20 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 8, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High · Sunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET · outdoors · wind 7 mph, 68°F
Kansas City Chiefs5–2 · Elo 1539 · Patrick Mahomes (+46 Elo)
24–28
Denver Broncos
6–2 · Elo 1617 · Bo Nix · Home
Final: KC 24, DEN 28. Elo moved DEN 1604 → 1617 and KC 1553 → 1539.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | DEN | KC | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | DEN 57% | 57% | 43% | +6.5 | DEN 1604 vs KC 1553, implied spread DEN −2.1 |
| Closing spread | DEN 54% | 54% | 46% | +3.8 | DEN -1.5 |
| Sportsbooks | KC 51% | 49% | 51% | -1.0 | |
| Kalshi | DEN 51% | 51% | 50% | +1.0 | |
| Polymarket | KC 51% | 50% | 51% | +0.0 | |
| The blend | DEN 52% | 52% | 48% | +2.0 | |
| The crowd (3) | KC 53% | 47% | 53% | -3.1 | |
| The sharp crowd | KC 53% | 47% | 53% | -3.1 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
Denver Broncos over the Chiefs: Elo 57%, market 50%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Mahomes is worth 46 Elo.
Details
- Importance 35 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 59.
- Rest: DEN 7 days, KC 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. DEN: Bo Nix (-1 Elo). KC: Patrick Mahomes (+46 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 7 mph, 68°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread DEN +1, total 41.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $2.4M traded, $2.3M open · Polymarket: $408k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Broncos 28, Chiefs 24. Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos, Week 8. The Broncos won 28 to 24; the game turned on (Shotgun) PENALTY on KC-J.Moore, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 1 - No Play.. Attendance 76,831. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Broncos at 50%, Elo at 57%, The System at 52%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (+6.5).
- Elo: Broncos 57%, +6.5
- The market: Broncos 50%, +0.0
- The System: Broncos 52%, +2.0
- The crowd: Broncos 47%, -3.1
- The bot crowd: Broncos 51%, +1.0
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) PENALTY on KC-J.Moore, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 1 - No Play. in the fourth quarter at 0:04, which moved the home side's chances from 30% to 60%.
- Largest lead: Chiefs by 11. Lead changes: 2.
- Broncos's live win probability ranged from 8% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 1:38: Noah Gray 4 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick) (KC 24, DEN 13)
- Q4 8:55: Nate Adkins 2 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Bo Nix Pass to Jaylen Waddle for Two-Point Conversion) (KC 24, DEN 21)
- Q4 1:56: Jonah Coleman 5 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick) (KC 24, DEN 28)
The box score
The Chiefs outgained the Broncos, 399 to 294; the difference was elsewhere.
- Total yards: KC 399, DEN 294
- Yards per play: KC 6.0, DEN 5.2
- Third downs: KC 6-14, DEN 2-11
- Turnovers: KC 0, DEN 0
- Penalties: KC 11-105, DEN 6-45
- Possession: KC 31:29, DEN 28:31
- Red zone: KC 2-3, DEN 3-3
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Broncos +13 to 1617, Chiefs -13 to 1539. The quarterback adjustment going in was DEN -1, KC +46.
- Patrick Mahomes (KC): 30/41, 321 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, QBR 120.1
- Bo Nix (DEN): 20/32, 222 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 103.9
- Rushing: Jonah Coleman (DEN), 11 CAR, 41 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Jonah Coleman (DEN), 4 REC, 63 YDS
- Rushing: Kenneth Walker III (KC), 21 CAR, 69 YDS
- Receiving: Emmett Johnson (KC), 5 REC, 128 YDS, 1 TD
The players
3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -3.1 and 0 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged +0.9 and 8 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Homer, Broncos 54%, +3.8.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos, Week 8. The Broncos won 28 to 24; the game turned on (Shotgun) PENALTY on KC-J.Moore, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 1 - No Play.. Attendance 76,831. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 24, 5 PM ET; last change Sun 3:58 PM ET. The consensus has moved toward DEN by 4 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (DEN) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 47% | 51% | +4 | 40 |
| Polymarket | 46% | 50% | +4 | 36 |
| Sportsbooks | 47% | 49% | +2 | 18 |
Consensus over time